- Turkey and Hungary are both the only countries that haven’t voted to join NATO with Finland and Sweden.
- Among the issues is stalling by Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, who has a close relationship with Putin.
- One ex-diplomat told Insider the US and its allies need to bring Orbán “to his senses.”
Since the NATO invited both the Nordic countries to join, the requests of Finland and Sweden to join NATO after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine were widely supported.
However, Turkey and Hungary have not yet signed off on the addition of new members to the alliance, and instead are deliberately stalling proceedings.
One former ambassador told Insider the US and its allies need to bring Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán “to his senses” as the increasingly authoritarian leader and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan continue to delay the process with their own ambitions in mind.
Both leaders tried to maximize their strategic interests in return for approbating a major NATO expansion, security guarantees or pleasing other heads-of-state.
“Me having to say that Hungary is a threat to the alliance is painful, but I do believe that Hungary is a threat to the unity and the integrity of the alliance,” András Simonyi, who served as Hungary’s first ambassador to NATO and who was also an ambassador to the US, told Insider in a recent interview.
“My question,” he continued, “is why neither the United States or others in the alliance are making a bigger effort to bring Orbán to his senses. He would understand if they talked to him in the right way, which is clear and hard. But I don’t see that happening.
Orbán is ‘testing the limits’ of NATO
Finland and Sweden — two countries that have historically been militarily nonaligned — Submitted their applicationsNATO was formed in May after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 30-member military alliance was formed in June. Formally invitedFinland and Sweden will become new members
Because NATO expansion requires unanimous consent, all member countries must approve new members. Three months later and 28 of 30 countries have ratified amendments to the treaty, and they have approved the expansion.
However, Turkey and Hungary are refusing to give up, as they both indicated previously.
Simonyi said Hungary hasn’t given its approval because Orbán is sending a “couple of messages” to the alliance, among them that he doesn’t want to be taken for granted or hear any external criticism.
But there’s another reason that should not be underestimated, Simonyi said, arguing that there’s “no doubt” Orbán is trying to please Russian President Vladimir Putin. “[Putin]He likes the idea that he has an NATO friend who is his spoiler, and who makes things difficult,” added he.
Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP
In holding out on approving NATO expansion, Orbán is “testing the limits, and he will go as far as he can. He’s not stupid. He would understand if the limits were clearer — if the limits were set more clearly,” Simonyi said, adding that it’s “surprising to me how the rest of the alliances is not doing anything to push back.”
Hungary’s ties with the European Union have been strained by Orbán’s close relationship to Putin, as well as his Hardline stanceHungary’s press, academic institutions and judicial system. The European Union’s lawmakers even declared Hungary to be “independent” last month. no longer a democracyInstead, it is “a hybrid regime electoral autocracy.”
“That’s the weird part. He’s the guy who brought Hungary into NATO, and he knows how difficult it was,” Simonyi said, recalling standing next to Orbán when Hungary’s flag was first raised at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels after the central European country joined the alliance in 1999.
Simonyi stated, “Frankly, those were the days he did an amazing job in support for the United States.” “And, honest to God. I would never have believed that he would turn against America.”
When Turkey signs off, Hungary will sign off
Still, Simonyi said he believes Orbán will eventually sign off on NATO expansion, but the timeline may depend on his Turkish counterpart.
“Once Erdoğan says yes, Victor Orbán will say yes. I don’t think he sets the timeline, I think it’s Erdoğan who sets the timeline,” Simonyi said. “If he is last man standing, he will sign.”
Alper Coşkun, who is the former director general for international security affairs at Turkey’s foreign ministry and who also served as the country’s ambassador to Azerbaijan, told Insider that there doesn’t seem to be a sense of urgency on the Turkish side.
“The fact of the matter is in this case, Turkey has leverage over Sweden and Finland,” Coşkun said in a recent interview.
Denis Doyle/Getty Image
One of the major issues is security. Turkey has accused the Nordic nations of security. SupportMilitant groups that it Consider these factorsTurkey is concerned about terrorists and seeks to provide more support for those groups. Turkey wants both countries to be included in the NATO alliance. ExtraditeThey are alleged members of these groups and have firmly opposed them EmbargoesExports of arms And Recent commentary made about Erdoğan on Swedish state TV has led to some additional tension between the countries.
There are also domestic political considerations, Coşkun said, explaining that Erdoğan could portray any agreements or concessions from Finland or Sweden — or even from the larger NATO alliance — as an achievement in the rup-up to the country’s June 2023 presidential elections.
Despite some concessions being made, there are still roadblocks.
“I think Sweden and Finland Joining the alliance is in Turkey’s security interests,” Coşkun said, adding that the two countries have traditionally supported Turkey’s bid to joinThe European Union. “At the end, I believe it’s in Turkey’s best interest to find a reasonable solution without prolonging it.”
NATO would be able to draw on the significant contributions of these two Nordic countries. Increase in its overall military capability across all domains — air, land, sea, and with intelligence. This could be a good time to build these capabilities, even though Russia has not proven as formidable in the war against Ukraine as it was once believed.
Simonyi stated that Finland and Sweden could also “stabilize NATO” because they are strong, mature democracies and not transitional democracies which may fall behind in the future.
Simonyi stated that NATO’s enlargement was “an unnatural situation” and said, “I think what is happening is we’re fixing it.” It’s a real shame that we didn’t do it in peacetime. It’s also a pity that it happens because of the war in Europe.
