- Drought drove the Mississippi RiverTo Low levels in the pastThe US is unable to export its agricultural products.
- The KriseShipping costs have risen, and this cost could fall on consumers.
- The forecasts do not show enough rain to replenish the river by January.
Low water levels in the Mississippi River could cause a crisis that could affect consumers’ wallets. It is not expected to end until January.
A Summer of heat wavesIt baked the middle of the US, evaporating water from the Mississippi. The flash drought that struck the Ohio-Missouri river valleys in the fall prevented them replenishing the larger river. At that point, they’d only contributed small amounts of water from snowmelt to its flow, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok. In October, the Mississippi River broke low-water records.
Jeff Roberson/AP Photo
The receding waters have global implications. The Mississippi River basin ProducesAbout 92% of US agricultural exports, 60% of US grain exports and about 92% of US food exports, travel down the river to reach the Gulf for shipment around the globe. Most of this shipping was stopped mid-October and then resumed at a snail’s pace. AccuWeather expects that the river will be replenished by January, but not enough rain. Experts claim that we haven’t yet seen the full impact.
Shipping slowdowns could lead to shipping delays that consumers will have to pay.
European Union, Copernicus Sendtinel-2 imagery
While the US inland waterways system saves the country between $7 billion and $9 billion annually compared to costs of other systems, like truck or freight, economic losses incurred from the Mississippi River drought are significant. AccuWeather has estimated that there have been $20 billion in economic losses due to increased transportation costs, delays in shipping, and job loss.
But Deb Calhoun, senior vice president at the Waterways Council — a group that advocates for modern waterway infrastructure — told Insider she expects losses to be far greater than $20 billion once all the data is aggregated, and consumers will feel the impact.
Calhoun stated, “Those shipping prices are going to rise, and ultimately, these get passed on to consumers.”
Jeff Roberson/AP Photo
She also stated that the river transport is still the best way to move goods at a low cost.
She stated that “we probably haven’t seen the impact of this yet to the consumers market,” adding that “What everyone’s concerned about now, is getting the goods as fast as possible to those destinations, and those buyers all over the world, who are waiting for the product.” Commerce is moving at the moment, but it’s not efficient and it’s moving very slowly.
Rogelio V. Solis/AP Photo
Insider was told by representatives of the US Army Corp of Engineers that they have been continuously dredging this river to make it safe for barges. They plan to continue this work until the rivers rise in January.
“We haven’t had any channel closures — knock on wood — to date. It can be difficult as the river levels continue falling,” Lou Dell’Orco of the USACE St. Louis division, said to Insider.
Uncertain future for America’s shipping corridor
Karen Pulfer Focht/Reuters
Supply chain issues are not unique to the drought — the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused countries in Europe to place embargoes on key goods like grain and energy supplies, meaning international buyers are turning to the US to get those goods, which are primarily transported via the Mississippi River. Calhoun stated that coal is in great demand right now and that shipping it out of the United States presents a challenge due to low water levels.
Calhoun explained that this temporary blip is temporary and that Mother Nature will help us get back on track. “We have seen high and low water during the same shipping season, and the industry will handle those weather disruptions as they arise.”
Jeff Roberson/AP Photo
Jon Deason, lead professor of the Environmental and Energy Management Program at George Washington University, isn’t feeling as optimistic. According to Deason, consumers will feel the effects of low water levels in the first place if they see higher grocery prices.
Pastelok said it’s unclear how climate change will affect the Mississippi River in the long term, but it’s possible that the river’s drought cycle accelerates. Drought could hit the river instead of every 10-15 years.
We can fix it. Deason stated that “We can fix it.” However, he said, Insider, “But so far we haven’t.” He also explained, “And the main reason we haven’t is because the pain hasn’t gotten sufficiently severe to people to pay attention to it and for elected officials or to do anything about it.”
Drought cycles can reach new extremes due to the climate crisis
Stephen Smith/AP Photo
Drought is a natural part of the Mississippi River Basin’s natural cycle. Similar water levels existed in 2012 and 1988.
Pastelok stated to Insider that “you can’t really do it all on climate change.”
However, he suggested that climate change could be increasing heat waves, droughts, and the diminishing snowpack which brought the river down so low. Although scientists have to do extensive analysis in order to assign any one event to climate change; they are confident that increasing global temperatures will make extreme heat more common and more frequent.
Rogelio V. Solis/AP Photo
The Mississippi shipping slowdown is an example of how climate change can work in the background to cause stress and create crisis.
Deason stated, “This is going to be a problem worldwide for a very long time.” It is a serious problem in vulnerable places, such as the Mississippi Watershed, where the economy depends heavily on rainfall.
