There were more eyebrows raised when it was revealed that 433 people had won the jackpot. Government-backed Lottery in the Philippines – sharing in 236 million pesos (about US$4 million).
This has, perhaps unsurprisingly, led to increased calls For more information, please contact usThis is how it could have happened.
This outcome is not as unlikely as you might think if there are basic concepts of probability and psychology.
How the lottery works
A person buying a lottery ticket selects six numbers between 1 – 55. Random draws are used to determine the winning sequence. A ticket is considered to win the jackpot if it contains the same six numbers as the six numbers that were drawn.
Each ticket has:
- A six-in-55 chance of drawing the first number, multiplied by
- A five-in-54 chance of getting the second is multiplied by
- A chance of getting the third is four-in-53 multiplied by
- A three-in-52 chance of getting the fourth is possible. Multiplied by
- The chance of getting the fifth is 2 in 51.
- One in fifty people will get the last.
These numbers add up to 1 in 28 989,675 chances of winning the Jackpot. This is how it can be possible for 433 tickets have won the jackpot.
What are the chances of that?
We don’t know how many tickets were sold so we can’t be sure of the probability that 433 winners will be available.
According to a widely-shared estimate, there were approximately 10 million ticket sales this week. Claim the chances were as little as “one out of one followed by 1,224 zeros” – a truly absurd number. This is lower than the chance of flipping a common coin 2,800 times in one row and seeing tails all the time.
This estimate overlooks significant empirical evidence regarding human behavior and psychology. It assumes that each purchaser of a ticket will have equal chances of selecting any of the 28989,675 combinations.
It has been evident that certain combinations work across the globe. This is a much more popular optionYou are more than the rest.
Experts often recommend using a random number generatorWhen cashing a ticket. Although it will not increase your chances to match the winning values, it can reduce your chances that you have to share your winnings with other gamblers.
More psychology than probability
One clue may lie in the explanation of the winning numbers 9, 18, 27, 36 and 45, respectively. Those who have studied your nine times table carefully will see a pattern in the seemingly random numbers.
It is likely that this pattern appeals to people. This may explain why more people choose this particular sequence. This pattern could be the explanation for the high number winning tickets, but it isn’t a smoking gun that suggests impropriety.
In the United Kingdom, a similar spike in winners was also observed 2018When five of six numbers were multiples or sevens, this was the case. Numerous jackpot winners were produced by a streak of consecutive numbers in 2020 (5, 6, 7, 8, 9 10) South Africa.
Remember that the winning number sequence for the Philippines lotto is just as likely to be drawn as any other number sequence. There are no chances that 9, 18, 27, 36 and 45, 45, and 54 will be drawn.
Many people, however, would mistakenly believe that the second sequence is more likely to happen at random.
Humans are surprisingly bad at judging what a sequence of random numbers looks like. They even outperformed simple probabilistic pattern-matching. The humble pigeon.
Participants were twice as likely to choose an alternative in a study. An odd number is better than an even oneWhen asked to name a random number, they suggested that some numbers might “feel” more random than other numbers, despite this obvious absurdity.
Could there be foul play?
Although 433 winning tickets were purchased, it is not conclusive evidence that there was any wrongdoing. It would be fascinating to see how many people bought the same numbers in previous weeks. Or which combinations are also selling well.
This number is not unusual based on evidence from other lotteries.
It is also important to remember the millions of other similar lotteries held around the world every year. Nearly all of these receive little international press. Even though such outcomes seem highly unlikely for any draw, the sheer number of lotteries worldwide means that they are actually quite possible. quite likelyAt least one of these will result in a remarkable outcome just by chance.
There are often accusations of extraordinary lottery results being announced. The most notorious example is the announcement that FC Barcelona legend Xavi won. Private lotterySoon after arriving in Qatar,
It is possible that the only statistical anomaly is the way so many people perceive randomness led them to the same number pattern. I won’t rush to buy a lottery ticket, however.
Stephen WoodcockAssociate Professor of Mathematicsal Sciences, University of Technology Sydney
This article has been republished from The ConversationUse the Creative Commons license Learn more Original article.
