California Republicans are sometimes thought as of an endangered species.
However largely by way of the efforts of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — a Bakersfield native who stepped down from the Home final December — the GOP lately has been in a position to claw again some energy within the Golden State by successful a set of highly-competitive swing districts in areas the place the get together nonetheless retains a large base of assist.
And it’s in these districts, from the Central Valley to the outskirts of Los Angeles and right down to Orange County, the place the Home majority will possible be received or misplaced in 2024.
Republicans at the moment maintain a slim 218-seat majority, a precarious place for the get together because the 213-member Home Democratic Caucus works to flip the chamber this 12 months.
Here is a have a look at the six California congressional districts held by Republicans — 5 of which had been received by President Joe Biden in 2020 — which can have an outsized position during which get together holds the speaker’s gavel in 2025:
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Younger Kim, fortieth District
First elected to the Home: 2020
Kim, a former member of the California State Meeting and onetime aide to former congressman Ed Royce, first ran for Congress in 2018 in hopes of succeeding her longtime boss. However she misplaced to Gil Cisneros in what was a banner 12 months for Democrats, particularly within the suburbs.
With the robust backing of McCarthy and different GOP leaders, Kim ran once more in 2020 and defeated Cisneros in a rematch, turning into one of many first Korean-American girls to serve within the Home. After the 2020 Census, her congressional district, which now contains elements of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino counties, was reconfigured into one that may have narrowly backed Biden.
Kim received reelection by practically 14 factors in 2022, however Democrats see the competition as winnable. She’ll now tackle retired Orange County fireplace captain Joe Kerr in November.
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Michelle Metal, forty fifth District
First elected to the Home: 2020
In 2020, Metal, a former Orange County supervisor, narrowly defeated then-Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in a district that had lengthy favored Republicans. (Two years earlier, Rouda flipped the district by defeating then-Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a conservative fixture in Congress.)
Metal has staked out socially-conservative positions on points like abortion and same-sex marriage, and in 2022, she received reelection over Democratic nominee Jay Chen by practically 5 factors.
However Biden would have received the present configuration of Metal’s district, which incorporates elements of Orange and Los Angeles counties, by 6 factors.
Within the November election, Metal will face Democrat Derek Tran, a client rights lawyer.
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Mike Garcia, twenty seventh District
First elected to the Home: 2020 particular election
Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, has confirmed to be an adept candidate in his northern Los Angeles County-anchored district. In all three of Garcia’s races, together with the Might 2020 particular election triggered by the resignation of Democrat Katie Hill, he defeated former Democratic state lawmaker Christy Smith.
In November 2020, Garcia narrowly defeated Smith by 333 votes out of practically 340,000 ballots forged (a 0.1% edge), however in 2022 he received by a way more decisive 6 factors.
So the district, which might have voted for Biden by 12 factors underneath its new traces, stays a prime precedence for each events headed into the 2024 elections. Republicans have to retain a foothold in suburban districts just like the twenty seventh to have any shot of retaining their majority, whereas Democrats see the district as a key pickup alternative given its bluer lean on the presidential stage.
Democrats — together with early-endorser Smith — are lined up behind George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of workers and onetime Virgin Galactic chief govt.
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Ken Calvert, forty first District
First elected to the Home: 1992
Calvert is the longest-serving California Republican in Congress. A former native GOP county get together chair, he is represented elements of Riverside County in Congress since 1993. His seat spans a number of Coachella Valley cities, together with elements of the Inland Empire, together with Corona.
The 15-term incumbent has been a principally dependable vote for GOP management. Calvert was amongst the 147 Republicans who voted to overturn not less than one state’s election outcomes after the 2020 presidential election.
Calvert received most of his races by massive margins earlier than redistricting, and he final confronted a really aggressive reelection struggle in 2008. However in 2022, Calvert defeated Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by just below 5 factors.
Calvert and Rollins will face off in a rematch this fall.
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John Duarte, thirteenth District
First elected to the Home: 2022
Duarte is not only a Republican in what would have been a Biden-won district in 2020. The businessman and pistachio farmer holds a Central Valley seat in one of the crucial pro-Biden districts that’s at the moment held by a Republican.
Home Democrats have been desperate to take pictures at Duarte, together with his choice to assist Home Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s onetime bid for the speakership. Jordan didn’t win the speakership, finally paving the way in which for Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana.
In 2022, Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Grey, a former state meeting member, by simply 564 votes, in what was one of many closest congressional races within the nation that 12 months.
Duarte and Grey will face one another once more in November.
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David Valadao, twenty second District
Home tenure: 2013-2019, 2021-present
Valadao was narrowly booted from Congress through the anti-Trump 2018 wave. Two years later, the rich dairy farmer defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in a rematch.
Valadao’s return to Congress was overshadowed by his choice to develop into considered one of 10 Home Republicans to vote to question President Donald Trump within the aftermath of the Capitol riot. Not like his colleagues, Valadao grew largely silent after the vote. In consequence, Trump did not practice his ire on the Californian to the extent that he focused the opposite 9 GOP lawmakers.
In 2022, Valadao bested Democrat Rudy Salas, a former state meeting member, by 3 factors.
The congressman will face Salas once more within the basic election.
