Philadelphia Flyers head coach John Tortorella has made it clear that — at least in the early portion of the season — the bottom of his team’s lineup will be something of a revolving door, with players moving up and down between the NHLThe brain trust will be reviewing AHL rosters and determining who is really ready to make a difference for the big club.
Chuck Fletcher, general manager, has now given notice that the revolving doors would also include players from outside the organization.
With James van RiemsdykHis broken finger surgery will cause him to miss weeks, as well as both. Sean Couturier Cam Atkinson out long-term, the Flyers’ forward corps was looking mighty thin — and it wasn’t exactly deep in the first place. After the New York IslandersFletcher filed a claim for Kieffer Bellows, the 2016 first-round draft pick. They entered the day with the ninth best points percentage in the NHL, meaning that Philadelphia would have had priority over any other team. However, no other club with a worse track record filed a claim for Bellows.
He’s now a Flyer.
But why would the Islanders — who six years ago invested a first-round pick in Bellows — be willing to risk losing him? Why would the Flyers show interest in him? And now that he’s on the roster, where exactly does he fit?
The early NHL struggles
Bellows was placed by the Islanders on waivers this week because he missed his opportunity with the big club in 2020-22.
Bellows was drafted by the Islanders with the 19th pick in 2016 — the Flyers had the opportunity to grab him at No. 18 but was traded to No. 22 and selected German Rubtsov — in large part because of his upside as a sniper. While there were power forward aspects to his game, his best selling point was his 50 goals scored in 62 games for the U.S. National Team Development Program during his draft year. Bellows’ development path had its ups and downs — he underwhelmed as a freshman at Boston University, but played well after jumping to the WHL the following year, and was a standout at the 2017 world juniors, scoring nine goals in seven games for the United States, easily leading the tournament in the process.
However, his pro game was slow to develop. He scored just 19 points in 72 games during his first AHL season with Bridgeport, and while he did improve the following season — 22 goals and 31 points in 52 games in 2019-20 — it’s not like he was blowing the doors off the competition. He was still given a chance by the Islanders to play with them in their 2020-21 season (14 games), and then again over a longer period last season, when Bellows played more than half the season (45 games).
He didn’t exactly impress.
Bellows didn’t score many goals (six in 45 games), despite his three most common linemates being Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau Mathew Barzal. He wasn’t finishing at an especially high rate (7.6 percent shooting). His defensive play didn’t impress then-Islanders head coach Barry Trotz, and he found himself a regular healthy scratch. It wasn’t like the advanced metrics told a different tale, either — Bellows graded out with a -0.163 impact on his club’s expected goal differential at even strength, which placed him in the 12th percentile among regular NHL forwards.
Young potential sniper, with pedigree, who failed to stick in his first extended taste at NHL action. The organization that drafted him eventually deemed him exempt. If that profile sounds just a bit familiar to Flyers fans, it should — it could just as easily be describing Owen Tippett, the centerpiece of last March’s trade that sent Claude GirouxFlorida
In fact, Tippett’s statistical profile with the Panthers in 2021-22 is strikingly similar to Bellows’ work with the Islanders last season.
All metrics are five-on-five, except for xG impact (all even-strength situations), and courtesy Evolving-Hockey. Florida only Tippett stats.
Bellows was basically 2021-22 Tippett, but a bit more efficient statistically across all of the board. To put it another way, Bellows’ claim could be considered Tippett Insurance. The Flyers will be adding a buy-low, young-ish forward with potential for sniping to their roster. Both could become NHL goal scorers. Tippett might not know the answer, but there is another possible sniper.
Differences between Bellows & Tippett
That said, Bellows isn’t a copy of Tippett, by any means, despite their statistical similarities so far in the NHL.
Tippett is a more traditional shooter. He has size, but will not be mistaken for a mental power forward. That doesn’t mean he won’t throw a hit now and again, but it’s not a major part of his game. Bellows, on his other side, is more of a hybrid sniper/power forward. Bellows scored 103 hits last season in 45 games. His 12.09 hits per sixty minutes at five on five last season was fourth for Islanders forwards. This is behind only the trio. Cal Clutterbuck (19.13), Matt Martin(17.66). Ross Johnston (16.53). Bellows is an aggressive forechecker and a more willing hitter than Tippett.
Tippett is a legitimate flyer, especially in straight line speed. Bellows’ skating ability, however, pales in comparison. Bellows’ skating ability has always been something of a weakness, dating back to his days as a prospect. He simply doesn’t have the physical tools in terms of skating that Tippett does.
In addition, Tippett has at least proven that he can score in the second-best North American league — the AHL. Tippett now has 60 points from 63 AHL matches. His only challenge is getting to the NHL. Bellows, on the other hand, has 10 fewer AHL points — in 62 more games. Bellows really hasn’t had a season that screams scoring potential since 2017-18 with the Portland Winterhawks (41 goals and 74 points in 56 games) in the WHL, and even that was his draft-plus-two season, when high-end prospects are expected to score at over point-per-game rates.
There’s a reason why Tippett was a trade asset for Florida, whereas the Islanders apparently could only hope to give Bellows away. While they are similar player types and neither has fully established himself as an NHLer yet, Tippett’s chances of doing so are quite a bit higher.
Why did the Flyers choose Bellows?
In short — why not?
As a waiver claim, Bellows cost nothing more than cap space — which the Flyers now have due to their many long-term injured players — and one of their 50 contract slots. Snipers are highly prized and rare, so the Flyers were allowed to add one with this skill set almost for free. He was worth the cost of a flyer, even if it was just to see if a change in scenery would help him improve his game and uncover his potential. It’s not like he hasn’t flashed it at times in the NHL — there’s a reason why the Islanders stuck with him all season in 2021-22 despite underwhelming results.
It also helps that van Riemsdyk’s broken finger opens up a clear spot for him, both in the lineup and on the power play. Bellows, despite receiving quality linemates in New York, didn’t get much in the way of power play time. The Flyers currently use Scott Laughton — who on a contending team likely isn’t even a power play option — as their net-front weapon on PP1. There’s space for Bellows to get a long look on the PP, whether on the flank or (befitting his power forward tendencies) at the net front. Considering the fact that it only cost a waiver claim, it’s a worthwhile experiment, especially in a season that the Flyers plan to largely use as a fact-finding mission regarding their entire roster — but especially the under-25 crew. Bellows provided another interesting example.
It’s also abundantly clear that the Fletcher-run front office has prioritized the discovery and development of shoot-first goal scorers. Bellows is just the next in a long line of potential “snipers” that they’ve added to the organization over the past few seasons: Tippett, Atkinson, Tyson Foerster, Samu Tuomaala, even No. Cutter Gauthier is the 5th pick. That’s a lot of players who at one point or another in their careers, projected to be (or were) 30-plus goal scorers at the NHL level. Fletcher — likely driven by his early years managing the Flyers, when they were bereft of shoot-first players — seemingly remains intent on not ending up with a forward corps full of only playmakers again, and he’s willing to throw a lot of darts at the problem in the hope that at least one hits the bull’s eye.
That doesn’t mean there aren’t a few risks involved with the claim, beyond the simple possibility that Bellows just isn’t an NHL-caliber player and never develops into a quality goal scorer at the pro level. The stylistic overlap with Tippett is real, and it’s possible that there’s not enough room in the top nine for both of them, given that they both qualify as one-dimensional snipers who have yet to manifest their finishing ability in the NHL. Tortorella will have to be patient with two of them in order to develop their long-term skills. Or will they start to cannibalize each other’s ice time and power play opportunities, ultimately hurting both of them? In theory, the Flyers could dress both Tippett and Bellows, but that would likely involve sending down another intriguing youngster (which wouldn’t serve the rebuilding nature of this season well) or benching a forward like Lukáš SedlákOr (especially) Nicolas Deslauriers, which they haven’t shown a willingness thus far to do.
The Bellows claim is, on the whole, a low-risk and medium-reward move that’s worth considering. It will be interesting to see if the change of scenery, new coaching staff, or a different approach can help spark a first round pick. Given the apparent pivot toward more of a long-term focus in 2022-23 for the Flyers, it’s certainly worth a shot.
(Photo: Dennis Schneidler / USA Today)
