A narrow majority might be a problem. Kevin McCarthy, House Minority LeaderR-Calif. in particular his pursuit to be Speaker.
Republicans might be heading in the right directionFor next year, a majority is needed somewhere in the 220s. The Speaker is elected by the entire House. The House must elect the successful candidate with a majority vote. This means that the House must have 218 votes, if it is 435. The Speaker is more than who got the most votes.
To elect a Speaker, the House must vote multiple times. A vote for Speaker hasn’t gone to a second ballot since 1923.
Heading into Tuesday, McCarthy probably had a range of 7-10 Republicans who wouldn’t support him for Speaker no matter what. It is possible that this number will grow.
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McCarthy may be able command the votes as long as he keeps former rival Rep. Jim Jordan from Ohio on his side (remember Jordan ran against McCarthy for Leader in 2018), and if the California Republican remains within the good graces. Ex-President Trump
Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), House Minority leader, shares his assessment of the GOP’s performance in the election during a conversation with reporters at Washington’s Capitol on Wednesday, November 4, 2020.
(AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
It wouldn’t take much for Mr. Trump to throw McCarthy under the bus. Especially considering the GOP’s tepid success when expectations were so lofty.
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But there is a reason McCarthy didn’t become Speaker in 2015 when former Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, resigned. McCarthy stated on Fox that Republicans created the 1/6 committee to undermine the presidency. Hillary Clinton bidMcCarthy was almost saying the quiet part loudly.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Kevin McCarthy.
Support for McCarthy to succeed Boehner had already been shaky. Some Republicans had already begun to look for reasons to oppose McCarthy. They found it in the Benghazi remark – and McCarthy was toast.
The past could repeat itself.
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Republicans will continue to look for reasons to reject McCarthy, despite being promised a “redwave”. Tuesday’s weak tea at the ballot box could justify some GOP opposition to McCarthy for Speaker. Moreover, if McCarthy does become Speaker, he is going to have to veer FAR to the right to meet the demands of the House Freedom Caucus on a host of issues – ranging from impeachments to funding the government to raising the debt ceiling. Freedom Caucus members – like Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., – will demand a pound of flesh from McCarthy in exchange for them supporting him for Speaker.
Kevin McCarthy believes Republicans can take control of Congress and push Pelosi to the Speaker’s Chair.
(Getty Images)
Additionally, the calling card Nancy Pelosi, House SpeakerD-Calif. is passing major bills by the narrowest margins. She’s done it for two decades. McCarthy has never demonstrated strong vote counting prowess. McCarthy could have immediate management problems.
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In fact, McCarthy’s first challenge could come in mid-December. That’s when a bill to avert a government shutdown comes due. If McCarthy doesn’t take a stand against that bill and do what the Freedom Caucus wants, those same members could hold that against him if and when he stands for Speaker on the House floor on January 3.
It will all be about the math when it comes down to McCarthy, as we like to say.
