When you’re hot, there is no feeling like it. My college football betting system is hot for the start of the 2022 season. My model returned with a solid second week and a great third week after a profitable but conservative first week. Last week we were able to make 7-3-1, which is almost four units of profit. We couldn’t ask for a better start to the season as our bets have returned an astounding 22.3% ROI. If we end the season in double digits, I’ll be very happy.
Last week’s record: 7-3-1. +3.75 units
Season record:15-8-3, +6.35 Units, +22.3% ROI
It was a good start to the season, as I mentioned. My model has 13 plays lined up for week 4. Week 4 offers a lot of value. Plenty of bets to be had so let’s not waste any time before the lines start to move.
Week 4 best bets
All bets will win one unit for favorites and lose one unit for underdogs. All odds are from BetMGM, and are final when the pick was made. Click hereLive odds. The worst line to bet is not to place a spread/total that is less than the one listed. For example, Under 46 (-110) means do not bet Under 46 (-115) or Under 45.5 (-110). You can ask questions in the comments or contact me with more information Follow us on Twitter.
Georgia StateML +120 Coastal Carolina
I really hate going against the Chanticleers here, but I can’t ignore the edge. I make Georgia State a small favorite and Coastal Carolina hasn’t look all that great to start the season. My postgame win expectation model predicted that they would win against FCS Gardner Webb at less than half the odds. As good as the Coastal Carolina offense is, the defense isn’t great and I think the Georgia State offense can take advantage. This should be a high scoring game as both offenses should have the advantage and with my model making these teams basically a pick ’em on a neutral field, I’ll take plus money on the moneyline.
Georgia State ML +110 is the worst line to place a bet
Model projection: Georgia State 32.2, Coastal Carolina 29.6
Boise StateAt UTEP under 45.5 (-110)
Boise State’s defense is solid and has a good offense. UTEP’s offense is terrible and their defense is poor. I don’t see Boise State running away with things here and considering this should be one of the slowest paced games of the weekend, it’s under or nothing for me.
Worst Line to Bet: Below 45 (-110)
Model projection: Boise State 28.1, UTEP 14.5
Clemson Wake ForestOver 55.5 (-110)
I might be crazy for taking an over involving Clemson considering how average its offense truly is, but Wake Forest doesn’t have a defense that’s likely to slow the Tigers down. This game scored 75 combined points last year. I’m not overly thrilled to be on this side here, but Clemson has quietly been scoring points since the middle of last season. Wake’s inability to play defense and how efficient its offense is should give us some hope. This is a good value, according to my numbers.
Worst line to place a bet on: Over 56 (-110)
Model projection: Clemson 36, Wake Forest 25.9
South FloridaAt Louisville under 64.5 (-110)
This is a pure numbers play as there is a matchup advantage that I don’t necessarily love here. In this game, Louisville and USF should have no problems running the ball. This year, per cfb-graphs.comUSF ranks second in EPA/Rush offense and Louisville is 121st in defense according to the same metric. It’s not as drastic but Louisville’s offense ranks 85th, which is nothing special, while USF’s defense ranks 131st. While both teams should have success on ground, it does not mean that the clock should stop. My numbers have this around 60 so I’ll be rooting for the clock to keep moving here and maybe even some red zone stops to make this a winner.
Worst Line to Bet: Below 63.5 (-110)
Model projection: Louisville 36, South Florida 22.7
Bowling GreenAt Mississippi State under 56.5 (-110)
Bowling Green wins unexpectedly MarshallThey scored 34 points on 377 yards. That’s a little unsustainable. Mississippi State’s defense ranks in the top 25 of my model should have no problem keeping Bowling Green in check. Mississippi State also could be looking ahead to the gauntlet of the schedule they face over the next six weeks which includes Texas A&M, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia. Perhaps Mike Leach is looking to win this game as fast as possible, so he runs the clock late.
Worst Line to Bet: Below 56 (-110)
Model projection: Mississippi State 41.9, Bowling Green 11.5
ROCK CHALK, JAYHAWK. Lance Leipold has this offense humming in the early part of the season and I don’t see it stopping against an improved Duke squad. Duke has played a pretty weak schedule so far and I’m not buying the hype. After all, who didn’t expect to be laying 9 points with Kansas just four weeks into the season? The Jayhawks could be serious, at least in offense. They’ve already cashed our season win total bet so why not let them cash another bet this week?
Kansas -10 (-110) is the worst bet.
Model projection: Kansas 37.7, Duke 23.5
SMU surrendered just 7.2 yards per play, 0.23 EPA/Play and a 55% success ratio against Maryland. Sure, the Terrapins offense is good (maybe), but that kind of success doesn’t go unnoticed. My model suggests that TCU should achieve similar success, even though this game is at SMU. For reference, I currently have TCU’s offense ranked higher than Maryland’s. Sonny Dykes will be up against his old team here, and I believe he can win.
TCU -2 (-110) is the worst line to place a bet.
Model projection: TCU 34.7, SMU 31.5
Toledo -1.5 (-110) at San Diego State
I don’t know if the score from Toledo’s game against Ohio State is scaring people off here, but I can’t make this game close to a pick ’em. San Diego State’s defense has been less than expected this season, which has led to a shocking performance. Toledo, on other hand, should not have any trouble slowing down Aztec offenses despite Ohio State’s allowing over 700 yards of offense and 77 points. C.J. Stroud isn’t behind center in this one. Toledo should be more than just a field goal. Anything less than that is a waste of value.
Toledo -2.5 (-115) is the worst line to place a bet.
Model projection: Toledo 24.2, San Diego State 20.4
North TexasMemphis under 68.5 (-110)
A true plug your nose bet here as this game could be close to this number at halftime, but that’s not going to scare us away. The defenses aren’t great, but my model isn’t too fond of the offenses here either. Both teams went well over this total last week so maybe that’s causing a bit of an overreaction here. This is the model I have. It’s in the mid-60s. Again, this one could be over quick, but we can’t ignore the value here.
Worst line to place a bet on: Below 68 (-110)
Model projection: Memphis 37.6, North Texas 26.5
IndianaAt Cincinnati under 54.5 (-110)
I’ve faded Indiana multiple times already this season and this is a semi-fade here. Cincinnati should slow down this Hoosier offense. Remember, IllinoisThis offense was held to just 23 points over 90 plays. That’s some horrible efficiency in the world of college football. Despite the fact that Arkansas was a tough opponent for Cincinnati’s defense, the Bearcats defense has been outstanding in 2022. Indiana isn’t at the Arkansas level so points shouldn’t be too difficult.
Worst line to place a bet on: Under 54 (-110)
Model projection: Cincinnati 33.5, Indiana 18.6
ArizonaCalifornia, under 48.5 (-110)
After they somehow pushed last week against, they went back to the well with a Cal. Notre Dame. Cal can run the ball a little bit, but when they drop back to pass, good things don’t usually happen. Arizona’s defense has been surprisingly solid in the young season and shouldn’t be tested too much in this one. On top of Cal’s bad offense (115th in my model), this game should be played at a pretty slow pace. Slow pace and bad offense cannot be combined into one thing, an over.
Worst line to place a bet on: Below 47 (-115)
Model projection: Cal 23.3, Arizona 19.5
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama: +13.5 (-110)
South Alabama is a popular choice in sports betting and I believe the market is giving them too much respect. Louisiana Tech has played Oklahoma and Clemson (got crushed against both), but my model isn’t downgrading them too much considering the talent discrepancy. Perhaps I should get more familiar with the Jaguars, but my projection shows this game in single figures so two touchdowns would be worth it.
Louisiana Tech +13 (-110) is the worst line to place a bet.
Model projection: South Alabama 33.8, Louisiana Tech 24.9
Oklahoma -13 (-110) vs. Kansas State
It’s too bad Kansas State dropped a stinker to Tulane last week or maybe we would have gotten an even shorter price here, but I can’t possibly price this below two touchdowns. Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t missed a beat with the departure of Lincoln Riley and it looks like Brent Venables’ system is starting to get going on defense. The Sooners have an immense talent advantage here and Kansas State’s offense is just bad. I don’t see much success here for the Wildcats and I think this Oklahoma team is really, really good.
Oklahoma -14 (-110) is the worst line to place a bet.
Model projection: Oklahoma 34.4, Kansas State 17.8
(Photo by Lance Leipold – Troy Taormina/USA Today)
