We are now eight games into the season Son Heung-minHe has one yellow card (one) and as many goal contributions (one assist, none goals).
We are legally required to state that Son is a top-class player who will succeed. Son’s Spurs career, except for last season, has been marred by lean spells in goal followed closely by scoring streaks.
But it is remarkable that a player who shared last season’s Premier LeagueWith golden boot Mohamed SalahAfter scoring 23 goals and seven assists, it is so difficult to be productive.
Antonio Conte’s message has also changed. When Conte was first asked about Son’s form after three games of the season, he was a mixture of amused and annoyed. The message was the same as it had been when he was asked in March about potentially dropping Son: that he would have to be “crazy” to do it.
It was a fantastic season. @Sonny7 🌟
Which of his 23 goals was your favorite? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/SJoES00T1C
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) June 12, 2022
This was before there was a win away to Nottingham ForestAfter the match, Conte revealed that Son was suffering from a lack of goals.
Then, before Tuesday’s match against Sporting Lisbon, in which Son was substituted for the sixth time in seven games, Conte’s message was very different to what it had been a few weeks ago. He said that he was “here to change old habits” of certain players being selected for every game, and that “all the players have to accept the rotation, especially up front, where we have four players”.
The flip side is that, statistically, Son’s underlying numbers have not changed much. His expected goals (xG), have often been exceeded by him to an unsustainable degree. We are seeing that this season, though it is worth saying that we are talking about a small sample size in the Premier League — and part of Son’s genius is that he It hasThe average player has never taken the chance to win.
The Champions League has provided an even smaller sample size, even if Son’s combined xG in Spurs’ first two games of 0.07 feels like a fair reflection of his lack of threat against Marseille and Sporting.
The data alone does not provide much cause for concern.
Even when an expected goal was just a glint in the data analyst’s eye, the cliche has always been that it is better to be missing chances than not getting them at all, and Son has been in the former category this season (see the first graphic below). His 3.1 shots per game is more than most previous seasons, and his touches in the opposition box (4.8 per 90 minutes) is higher than the last two campaigns, even if it’s lower than the four before those.
The average quality of Son’s chances is lower than last season (0.1 xG per shot, compared to 0.2), but last season was exceptional. In general, Son’s 0.3 xG per 90 is in line with most of his previous campaigns.
But the goals are missing. If you look at the trends in time, the next graphic shows how Son performed with goals over his xG over previous seasons. This is based on a 10-game mean.
Son was first and second in overperformance for scoring more goals than the xG model predicted. Son scored 7.1 times more goals in 2020-21 than the quality chances would suggest. Last season, that number was seven.
Even though Son did a good job, very few players could outrun xG long term. However, he also went from a 7.3-level overperformance to a realistic 1.8 campaign in 2016,-17, which gave him fewer points despite having a much greater xG.
The chart 3 above shows the 10-game average from the end of last year. You can almost see the signs that he’s sliding into underperformance. But the story feels more significant because it covers the first six games.
Broadening it out, Son is on a run of 12 goals in his last 16 Premier League games — if those 16 matches were in the same season this six-game drop-off would be more forgivable.
We know as well that Son is prone to the odd drought — even if last season he managed to cap his longest goalless run at four matches in all competitions. He had previously endured six- and seven-game goalless streaks in 2020-21, five and seven in 2019,-20, respectively. In 2018, Son started the 2018-19 season without scoring a goal in nine games (similar to this campaign), after failing to score in the last 10 games of 2017. Son had goalless runs of 10-12 games in the first two seasons.
Son has been a tremendous striker in front the goal ever since, and all signs point to Son scoring again soon. No one has had more shots without scoring in the Premier League than Son’s 17, and only Brighton & Hove Albion’s Solly March (1.8) has a higher total xG than Son’s 1.7 without finding the back of the net.
Son shoots from the positions you would expect him.
For Fulham a couple of weeks ago — a game in which he played well — he hit the bar with a chance you would expect him to score.
And against Wolverhampton WanderersHe also attacked the woodwork at close range last month.
There are other reasons Son’s lack of goals has been the subject of so much attention. Richarlison signed for £60million ($70m) this summer and Dejan KulusevskiSince joining, has been exceptional JuventusJanuary so there is genuine competition for Son’s spot, especially as the former has two goals and two assists in his last four games while the latter has come on and looked dangerous in Spurs’ last two matches.
This kind of competition has simply not been there in the last few years when Son’s lean spells could be ignored knowing there was no realistic alternative. Contrarily, Conte was asked if he thought about giving Son a break after three games without scoring a goal.
That suggestion has been repeatedly made not just because of Son not scoring or assisting — it is also partly a consequence of Son’s performances, which have generally been pretty poor this season.
This is an interesting aspect of the Son situation. He can appear a bit ragged when he’s not scoring or assisting because he’s not as technically proficient as his peers.
It was a common view, for instance, that Steven Bergwijn was better at keeping hold of the ball in tight spaces, but there was never any clamour for him to be in the team over Son because of the South Korean’s devastating goal and assist numbers. You can focus more on the less efficient elements of his game if you take out the assist numbers and goal.
He looked a bit unsure about himself in possession, and struggled to beat him in the way that we would expect.
It was shocking to see Son being evicted so easily by formers in Marseille. Newcastle United defender Chancel Mbemba.
Son fell over on Tuesday night after picking up the ball from a dangerous position.
He stops to try to deceive the opposition defender…
But he loses his balance, and stumbles to the ground.
The lack of goals appears to have affected Son’s decision-making. Spurs fans booed Son’s decision to take a shot against Marseille. Son had ignored the five other players in front of his and chose to scuff and see the ball dribble far wide.
Son later led a counter, but due to his indecision, he lost a promising four against three.
A loose touch almost sees him lose the ball…
Son is close to recovering it by the time he does. Ivan PerisicHe can be seen only a few feet away when he makes the pass.
Son is limited by the fact that Spurs opponents are often sitting deep against him. This makes it difficult for him to reach out. After Spurs had won, Marseille’s opponents were down to 10 men. The above scenario against Marseille was then.
Son makes decisive contributions even when there isn’t enough space behind. Marseille were only reduced to 10 men because Son’s pace had forced Mbemba into a desperate, last-man lunge.
Son continues to run well, even if he does not always get the ball.
On Tuesday night, Sporting was defeated by his dart towards goal. Harry KaneA rare opportunity Tottenham chance.
Son’s run towards goal drags two defenders away.
Leaving Kane with a clear run on goal…
And even with Kane heading towards goal, Sebastian Coates can’t come across as he is having to keep an eye on Son.
Son ran in front of the defence during the Marseille match. Hugo LlorisFind it Eric DierIt is a long ride.
But Dier can’t get the ball under control.
Even if Dier could have made it, Son was left offside.
Son ran smartly to the left, where there was space, right at the beginning of the game.
After Perisic wins a header, Kane finally finds him.
Son is now in a very dangerous position. However, his pass is intercepted and continues to illustrate the idea of the right idea being undermined due to poor execution.
Son has also made decisions to not run as direct as possible to the goal at times.
In the Marseille game, for example, a confident Son might have seen the opportunity to move towards goal. Richarlison is about to receive it.
Richarlison then uses Richarlison to deceive him by moving to the left.
Son could be overthinking things due to his lack of assists and goals. Son is at his best when things seem to go smoothly, as he did last season with 12 goals in 10 matches to take a late charge for winning the golden boot.
Paulo Bento, his national team manager, stated on Tuesday that he doesn’t worry about him not scoring goals going into the tournament. World Cup. “I feel the same when he scores a lot,” Bento said. “I’ll not talk about it with him. He’ll come next Monday. (I have) every confidence in him as usual. There’s no concern, no problem.”
That echoes Conte’s position a few weeks ago, and given Son’s history and what the underlying numbers are saying, is a totally legitimate view to have. Spurs have to consider who is most likely to win their next game.
Conte has to make a decision. He must decide against which two of Son and Richarlison. Leicester CitySaturday
(Photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)
