The last few years have seen winter and autumn be very harsh on us.
The number of cases of COVID-19 started to rise in October 2020. Last year, at this point, the calm before storm was upon us, as the delta-driven cases count slowly declined before. The global domination of the omicron variant began with the introduction of this variant.At the end November (SN: 12/1/21). What will happen in the third pandemic season, when omicron continues its evolution and many people throw away their masks.
Time will tell. However, there are warning signs that another wave of deaths, hospitalizations, and infections could be coming. First, there are more hospitalizations than cases. In some European countries, the number of immigrants is increasingIncluding the United Kingdom.
The events in other countries often predict what will happen in America. The number of cases is still falling at the national and state levels. Experts fear that this trend may change over time as more people move indoors and temperatures drop, making it more difficult for the coronavirus to spread. Some Northeastern states, for instance, have seen a sharp increase in coronavirus levels in wastewater, suggesting there has been an uptick in transmission even if it’s Official case counts do not reflect this yet (SN: 4/22/22).
There’s also a wild card this year, complicating matters. There are many new versions of omicron. How might they shift the pandemic’s near future?
It’s a hard question to answer. On one hand, we’re in a very different place than we were two years ago, or even last year, with more Treatments for the handAn Omicron-specific booster (SN: 5/11/22; SN: 9/2/22).However, the coronavirus is known for throwing us some unexpected curveballs. Experts predict that winter will bring another wave. However, it is not clear what this wave will look like or how high it will peak.
“Although we can feel good that we are going in the right direction, we can’t let our guard down,” said National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci at an October 4, webinarThe University of Southern California Annenberg Center for Health Journalism held the event in Los Angeles.
There is some good(ish) news: Most people have been exposed to the virus, whether through vaccination or — the less-desirable route — an infection, or both. That means our immune systems have the virus’s mug shot on hand. If the coronavirus enters our noses, throats, or lungs, our antibodies and T cells will kick into high gear.
These immune barriers can dampen the virus’s ability to spread among people, as well as protect many from becoming seriously ill. As a result, fewer people may end up in the hospital or dying compared with previous years.
But then there’s the bad news: Over the last year, the omicron variant has adopted a few disguises in the form of mutations that help the virus hide from our immune systems. A version known as BA.5 rose to prominence over the summer, pushing out its cousins BA.22.12.1. Researchers are currently monitoring the progress of a new group of alphanumeric omicrons.
It is possible for a new, more worrisome variant to suddenly emerge and outcompete all its siblings. This was what happened in 2021 with the omicron and delta variants. The next name on the list would be “pi.”
But another — perhaps more likely — possibility is that over the next few months, our attention won’t be focused on a single lineage that sweeps the world but on a swarm of new variants. That’s thanks in part to the arms race between our immune systems and the virus.
With so many people having some form of protection now, as opposed to in 2020 or 2021, the coronavirus needs to continue changing in ways that make it easier for those defenses to be breached in order spread. Some of the variants currently in circulation have their own independent protections. These mutations have also been passed on to their offspring.Researchers report that similar abilities can be used to avoid antibodies during lab tests. The preliminary study was published October 4, at bioRxiv.org. With multiple variants using the same tactics to get around people’s immune systems, it can be tough for a single variant to come out on top.
BQ.1.1, and BA.2.75.2 are the two newest versions of the omicron. Some antibodies are particularly difficult to dodge.Researchers analyzed data from patients who had recovered from a BA.2 and BA.5 infection. This means that some people could be more vulnerable to another infection if they are exposed to the new versions. So far, it is only at very low levels in the United States.This fall, it was widely distributed.
Officials have already taken steps to address this evolving virus. Moderna and BioNTech released modified versions of their mRNA vaccinations this fall. These vaccines target both the coronavirus original and the omicron. This will give the immune system a refresher. However, few of these new shots make it to arms. Half of Americans say they’ve heard these updated shots. Little to NothingAccording to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, only around 5% of COVID-19 boosters were surveyed in September 30. So far, however, there have been only around 4 percentAll children 12 years old and over have received the new jabs. (The U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued the new jabs on October 12. Signed off Bivalent boostersThis is for children aged 5-11 years old.
What’s more, omicron’s continued evolution means that vulnerable people are fast losing COVID-19 treatment options. The October 4 study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, also found that the last stronghold of antibody drugs that are used to treat or protect high-risk patients — therapies called bebtelovimab and Evusheld — didn’t recognize some of the new variants when tested in lab dishes. On October 3, FDA issued a warning about Evusheld. This is a preexposure treatment that protects immunocompromised patients. doesn’t work for all variants. FDA confirmed that the drug provides protection against many of the circulating variants.
Another unknown that we’re facing this winter is how much other respiratory infections might add on to an already COVID-heavy burden. Flu season in Australia was back after a two years hiatus. This year, it started earlier than usual. Experts are once more warning about a possible “twindemic”The Northern Hemisphere is a place where both influenza (and the coronavirus) make people sick.SN: 9/18/20). Not to mention, there are myriad other infections that most people haven’t been exposed to over the last couple of years thanks to masking and social distancing.
That’s not to say everyone needs to prepare for yet another lonely winter. But it’s a sobering reminder that taking extra precautions such as testing before social gatherings and masking — especially around vulnerable people — would be wise, even as we get on with our lives. This reminds me that I should order more masks.
