The COVID pandemicThe rise in deaths has led to an unprecedented increase in the number of people dying in other parts of the world and a fall in life expectancy. Our research revealed that 2020 will see an increase in deaths worldwide. significant life expectancy lossesThis includes more than two years in the USA and one year in England or Wales.
In a new study, Nature Human BehaviorWe have shown that in 2021, life expectancy in western Europe has risen slightly while the US and eastern Europe suffered additional losses. Only Norway was able to surpass its pre-pandemic 2021 life expectancy, while the rest of the world is in worse shape than it would have been without this pandemic.
We knew the outlook was mixed for 2021. The excitement surrounding vaccine rollouts was tempered by large numbers of infections caused a series new, highly transmissible strains.
Our research team at Oxford has conducted extensive studies to assess the effects of these changes on life expectancy. Leverhulme Centre for Demographic ScienceThe Max Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchWe gathered data from 29 countries, mostly European (plus Chile)
The measure of life expectancy is used to summarize the country’s mortality in a given year. It is a measure that takes into account all deaths.
The life expectancy of a baby born today is not a predictor of their lifespan. Instead, it is the life expectancy of someone who lives today if they live with the current mortality rate (or 2021 as in our research).
This is a snapshot of the current mortality conditions, should they not improve or deteriorate.
Because it is comparable across countries and over time, demographers consider life expectancy to be a useful summary measure of population death.
It is possible to tell if there are large swings up or down that something significant has happened, such as with COVID. These drops allow us to compare mortality shocks from different places and times.
Life expectancy during COVID-19
We found that there was more variation in the effect of the pandemic upon mortality between countries in 2021 than in 2020.
The life expectancy of almost all countries we studied in 2020 fell, except for Norway and Denmark. However, in 2021, some countries saw an improvement in life expectancy from 2020 while others saw it get worse.
It is possible that the area avoided some of the more severe falls found in eastern Europe. early COVID waves during 2020Combination of lower vaccine uptakeIn 2021, large waves were seen. The most extreme example was Bulgaria, which suffered a shocking loss of 3.5years since 2019, 1.5 years in 2020, and two years in 2021.
Despite this, Early vaccination rolloutAfter losing two years in 2020, the US lost almost three more months in 2021. The US had Lower vaccine and booster intakeThis difference is likely to be due to some differences in 2021 compared to western European peers.
However, the US has a high life expectancy This country has been behind European countries.This has been true for many years. Some of the US’s disadvantages may be due to underlying health problems that were made worse by the COVID pandemic.
Most of their declines in life expectancy can be attributed to aging. To confirm COVID deathsThe US saw an increase in deaths. Due to drug overdoses.
England and Wales were somewhere in the middle. They gained 2.1 months in 2021, after losing almost a full year in 2020.
Even in countries doing well, COVID still impeded the normal trajectory of mortality improvements that we see year after year.
Life expectancy at birth by country, 2019–2021
In general, the trend in deaths towards younger people was slightly more evident in 2021 than it was in 2020.
This is due to greater vaccine coverage and increased precautions at an older age.
In fact, countries that have better vaccination coverage for people over 60 had a higher life expectancy.
The US has seen a return to pre-pandemic levels in mortality over the age of 80. The decline in mortality rates below 60 years of age led to a decrease in life expectancy overall.
We also compared the recent declines in life expectancy with historic crises that have resulted in significant deaths.
Since the end of the Soviet Union’s eastern bloc collapse, nor since the second world conflict in west Europe, have we seen losses as severe as those that occurred during the pandemic.
Fortunately, life expectancy levels have rebounded quite quickly in the past flu epidemics. COVID has had a greater and more consistent impact than the flu, contrary to the popular belief that it’s “just as the flu.”
Looking ahead and recognizing limitations
Life expectancy estimates require precise data on deaths by gender and age. We were unable to accurately calculate life expectancy for all countries in this study.
We know that countries like BrazilAnd MexicoLarge life expectancy declines in 2020 were a result of which it is probable that these people will suffer further losses in 2021.
COVID mortality rates in countries such as India may not be accurately recorded due to data limitations. But we know the death rate This has been a significant accomplishment.
Future prospects for life expectancy recovery are uncertain in 2022 and beyond. We anticipate continued divergence from country differences in vaccine uptake and booster uptake, prior infections, and continuing public health measures (or absence thereof).
It remains to be seen what the full effects of delayed healthcare and continued strain on the health system will be.
There are likely to be new variants of COVID that can evade immunity. The long-term effects of COVID infections infecting survivors’ health is unknown.
We hope that mortality levels will return to pre-pandemic levels, and even improve again. However, we cannot predict how long this will last. England has a high number of deathsAnd Other places in 2022It is clear that we have not recovered fully from the death impact of the pandemic. The path to recovery remains unclear.
Jennifer Beam DowdProfessor of Demography, Population Health, University of Oxford, and Deputy Director, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. University of Oxford; José Manuel AburtoBrass Blacker Associate Professor of Demography, LSHTM, and Marie Sklodowska Curie Fellow, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. University of OxfordAnd Ridhi Kashyap, Professor of Demography & Computational Social Science, University of Oxford
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