- In a Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics new poll, Mike Lee is leading Evan McMullin by 36%-34%
- The Utah Senate race looks to be one the most competitive in recent years.
- According to Jason Perry, director of Hinckley, the key to victory is support from moderate voters.
In the Utah Senate race, Republican Senator Mike Lee leads Evan McMullin by a narrow margin. This is a long-standing GOP stronghold and it’s shaping up to be one the most competitive statewide races of recent memory.
At the moment Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll — among registered voters — Lee earned the support of 36% of respondents, while 34% backed McMullin and 13% opted for another candidate. According to the polling results, 16% indicated they were still undecided.
The race is largely unchanged among likely voters. McMullin leads Lee 37%-34%. 16% of respondents said they were undecided.
The poll included 815 registered voters between Sept. 3 and Sept. 21. It had a margin error of plus/minus 3.43 percentage point.
Jason Perry, the director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, told Deseret News that the polling indicated that a swath of moderates — who are still not sold on giving Lee a third term in Washington, DC — is the key to the incumbent winning in November and are also critical to McMullin if he is to upset the Republican lawmaker.
“Mike Lee continues to be in the driver’s seat, but the most interesting aspect of this poll is who the undecided voters are — moderates and liberals,” Perry told the publication. “Mike Lee has to have some moderates. Evan McMullin has to convince as many liberals and moderates as he can. However, those groups are in a difficult spot.”
Utah Democrats threw their April Party SupportMcMullin was endorsed by Democrats in the November contest. In turn, they passed over a candidate from their party. In endorsing McMullin, Democrats lined up behind a former CIA officer who unsuccessfully sought the presidency in 2016, but performed strongly in the Beehive State — winning 22% of the statewide vote and holding Donald Trump below 50% of the vote in one of the most Republican states in the country.
While Lee overwhelmingly voted with the majority of Republican senators, McMullin stated to NBC News that he wouldn’t. caucus with either major party should he be elected to office this fall.
McMullin is able to compete with the incumbent, despite having a strong financial advantage in Utah for Republican candidates.
According to OpenSecretsLee has raised $7.9million, and has nearly $2.5million in cash. McMullin, on the other hand, has taken in more than $3.2million and has nearly $1.3million in cash.
In the last Deseret News/Hinckley Poll — which was conducted in July — Lee held a 41%-36% lead over McMullin.
As a result, the latest results show that there is some decline in support for Senator Joe Biden. However, there has been an increase of undecided voters.
