Progressive Jamie McLeod Skinner made seven-term Rep. Kurt Schrader lose his bid for reelection this year, when she defeated him during their May primary.
His ouster was from Oregon’sDemocratic efforts to win the seat in the November midterm elections will be complicated by 5th District’s new boundaries.
As Election DayAs the election approaches, national political analysts have begun to see McLeod-Skinner’s race against Republican Lori Chavez DeRemer as a tossup. The election of either candidate would be historic: McLeod-Skinner would be Oregon’s first openly gay congressional delegate, while Chavez-DeRemer is one of two House candidates aspiring to be the first Oregon Latina elected to Congress.
The 5th District contest isn’t the only one that is close for Democrats in Oregon. There is also a closely watched gubernatorial race where the party is under siege, while the 6th Congressional District has just been formed.
“It seems like there’s more opportunity for Republicans in Oregon than they’re used to having, and of all the competitive seats this is the most competitive,” said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst with the nonpartisan University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
He said, “Oregon has been an issue for Democrats this election cycle.”
Following the 2020 census, Oregon became one of only six states to receive an additional seat at the U.S. House. The state’s population jumped by more than 10% in the past decade to 4.2 million people, giving it the new 6th District but also radically changing the outlines of the neighboring 5th District.
The 5th’s new boundaries cut out the state’s central coast and shift the district dramatically to the east, stretching from tony suburbs in Portland’s southeast to central Oregon, a rural and more politically conservative region that also includes the left-leaning city of Bend.
McLeod Skinner is a central Oregonian who has some recognition for his unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid in the 3rd Congress before redistricting made the area part of the 5th. Chavez DeRemer is a relatively newcomer to the national scene, but she earned a reputation as a mayor of Happy Valley (a rapidly expanding suburb near the east edge of Portland).
Outside interests are now interested in the open seat and have begun to open their wallets.
Chevez DeRemer has been supported by the Congressional Leadership Fund (a Republican super-PAC). The fund spent close to $4.5 million. McLeod and Skinner’s Democratic foe, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has contributed $1.8 million. McLeod Skinner has raised over $4.8 million for herself, almost double the amount of her opponent’s $2.6 million.
This funding has led to a wall-to–wall bombardment of TV ads and stacks upon stacks of election flyers reaching voters in a district that is not used to receiving such attention.
Democrats still have a slight advantage in voter registration, but they need to court unaffiliated voters who account for a third of the electorate. The district as it is currently drawn would have gone for President Joe Biden by just under 9% in 2020 — not a significant difference from how it voted under the old boundaries.
Jamie McLeod–Skinner is a progressive nominee for Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. She defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader during a May primary.
“On paper, it’s a close district, it’s an open seat and it’s a year where Republicans have a lot of advantages,” said pollster John Horvick, vice president of DHM Research. He claimed that crime and homelessness are the main issues voters will vote on, perhaps more than Oregon’s Constitutional protections for abortion rights.
“If this was a neutral year, then you would probably expect that the Democrats would have a good chance at holding it.” But… But…
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McLeod Skinner, an attorney and consultant, has attempted to highlight Chavez DeRemer’s contradictory statements against this backdrop. AbortionAnd doubled down on the issue during the campaign trail.
Chavez-DeRemer tweeted in May that she would “be in favor of passing legislation like the heartbeat bill,” which would ban abortion after six weeks — a time when most women don’t know they’re pregnant. But in an interview with KGW-TV this month, Chavez-DeRemer said she supported abortion up until the end of the first trimester — or 12 weeks — and insisted, under follow-up questioning, that she had not changed her position.
Chavez-DeRemer stated in an interview with The Associated Press that she would not vote against a federal ban of abortion. She said it was a decision she made as a congresswoman. Chavez-DeRemer also supported abortion in the first trimester for cases of rape, incest, or to protect the mother’s health.
“I don’t want it on the ground of Congress,” she stated.
McLeod-Skinner said in a recent debate that although abortion is protected by Oregon law, it was “disingenuous” to think a bill to ban abortion at the national level wouldn’t come to the floor of Congress.
“It will be up to Congress to make this determination. We’ve seen it queued up,” she said.
Chavez DeRemer has attempted to move away abortion by hammering at issues that have recently plagued Oregon like HomelessnessPortland’s rising crime rate, opioid addiction, and growing crime. She portrays her opponent’s opponent as a far left radical who wants defund police. She also frequently uses GOP talking points about inflation and out-of-control government spending.
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The district is so evenly divided between the parties that the election outcome may be decided by suburban women who care about quality-of life issues like homelessness and abortion access. Christopher Stout, an assistant professor at Oregon State University, stated that this could happen because the district is so narrow.
“I think suburban women are really concerned about the Dobbs decision and the effect it’s going to have on their reproductive rights… but they’re also concerned about crime and homelessness,” he said.
