As tends to be the case, NFL draft season could start a little earlier than planned for some of the league’s struggling clubs (as well as for a few contenders who played their trade cards right). Each week, we’ll set the table for the potential top-10 order and what it all means.
We’ll also factor into the equation Austin Mock’s updated numbers. His NFL betting model projects the score and final win percentage for each team. As the season progresses, older data is phased out and replaced with data from this year. In this example, the simulation runs 100,000 time after each game to calculate our No. 1 pick odds and each team’s likeliest draft landing spot. (You can see Mock’s full projected top 10 draft order at the end of this post.)
What it looks like through Week 7
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 18.2%
Proposed pick: No. 2
If the Lions close the year with No. Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell will be asked if the Lions pick No. Jared GoffAre they their future QB or is it Bryce Young/C.J. Stroud seems more sensible right now. Detroit’s defense is still the worst in football, but Goff’s hardly been scintillating through 20 games since coming over from Los Angeles.
Due to the, the Lions will have a second first-rounder in their 2023 season. Matthew StaffordGoff and (and others) traded and the Lions absolutely need more talent in the secondary as well as up front. The Lions might have the chance to draft QB1 this year, but it may be too difficult to pass on.
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Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 32.5%
Proposed pick: No. 1
Davis Mills remains serviceable as a short-term starter, but his presence won’t do anything to dissuade the Texans from focusing on quarterbacks. Mills’ cheap rookie deal (and the experience he’s gained as a starter) might even make him a perfect QB2 to help mentor Young, Stroud, Will LevisOr anyone else the front office chooses.
The Texans added a couple more LegitTalents to their secondary during 2022 draft: CB Derek Stingley Jr.S Jalen Pitre. Houston may be able to spend a top three pick on a quarterback and then go back and grab an elite front-line defensive defender.Will Anderson Jr.? Jalen Carter?).
P.J. Walker gave the Panthers a lift on Sunday, but he’ll need to do a lot more to be viewed as the QB of the future. (Bob Donnan / USA Today)
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 15.7%
Proposed pick: No. 3
P.J. Walker played a great game last weekend and should be allowed to continue in the Carolina quarterback position for the remainder of 2022. But, the Panthers still need a strong, long-term leadership team. A lot of this is going to depend on where the team’s coaching search lands, but a QB need feels obvious.
And the other thing? Particularly after Christian McCaffrey’s tradeIt is a team that is very short on offensive skill talent. Carolina needs tight end and receiver help. Defensively, Derrick Brown, Brian Burns Jaycee HornIt can make a wonderful trio to work around. Fix the offense.
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 3.4%
Proposed pick: No. 8
Although our projections do not show this, SaintsYou can still slide down a few spots and it is still a rich-gets-richer situation here in Philadelphia. Jalen HurtsQB conversations are likely over for now. The Eagles can now focus their attention on preventing future losses.
The most notable on this list: C Jason KelceDTs Fletcher Cox, 34. The contract of a player who is not eligible for the 2023 season will be void. Javon Hargrave, whose contracts are void after the season; CBs James Bradberry Darius Slay, on track to hit free agency after the ’23 and ’24 seasons, respectively. Edge rusher is another spot where the strength of this draft class plays to the Eagles’ advantage.
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5. Houston Texans via Cleveland (2-5)
Projected odds of securing the No. 1 overall: 5.5%
Proposed pick: No. 5
We’ve already hit on the Texans’ needs. It’s worth reiterating, though, what a franchise-altering opportunity might be in the offing here. Houston fans will be rooting hard for the wheels to fall off in Cleveland.
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 5.2%
Proposed pick: No. 4
It’ll be fascinating to track how Geno Smith performs over the Seahawks’ final 11 games. To date, he’s been one of the biggest stories of the NFL season, but he’s also 32 and an impending free agent. If one of their top QB prospects is available, would the Seahawks be willing to sign him up for the next two- or three years?
If Seattle doesn’t go quarterback, this could be another team that tries to load up on front-seven talent. John Schneider (fourth-rounder) appears to have found two gems in the 2022 class at cornerback. Coby BryantThe fifth round Tariq Woolen). This time, the play might be to find an impact DT or a disruptive edge to pair with the current rookie Boye Mafe.
The Steelers haven’t picked higher than No. Since 2000, the Steelers have not picked higher than No. (Katie Stratman / USA Today)
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 4.2%
Proposed pick: No. 6
Steelers need assistance at offensive line. Kenny Pickett’s development is going to be somewhat dependent on how well he’s protected. And while Najee Harris’ broken tackle highlight tape can be a lot of fun to watch, he needs help in front of him.
After the pass-rushing crash T.J. Watt’s injury has been alarming, but Watt still hopes to play this season. A second option could be to seek out more defensive help (Cam Heyward, who turns 34 in May),
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 3.8%
Proposed pick: No. 9
In the weeks leading up to April, expect to see wide receivers paired with Jaguars. The front office has committed substantial resources to help. Trevor LawrenceMarvin Jones, 32 years old, is eligible for free agency during this offseason. Christian KirkCould use an explosive running partner.
This is probably too high for safety. Why not pair emerging star CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia’s former teammate? Kelee RingoOder Christian Gonzalez? Another playmaker along the defensive line wouldn’t be the worst idea, either, particularly an interior option to draw attention away from 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker.
9. Las Vegas Raiders (2-4)
Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 1.2%
Proposed pick: No. 13
The good news is: Dylan ParhamLas Vegas’ guard or center looks like a real treasure. The bad news is that the Raiders still require offensive line support, even after giving up. Alex LeatherwoodThis summer, the team could use some extra help at the edge or in the secondary.
In general, taking the most stable player possible here feels imperative for a franchise that didn’t have a first-round pick in 2022 and has already cut its 2021 first-rounder (Leatherwood) and both firsts from 2020 (Henry Ruggs and Damon Arnette). The Raiders are a talented team without a foundation, and though this isn’t an elite year for tackles, a foundational tackle would help a lot.
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Projection of securing No. 1 overall: 1.6%
Proposed pick: No. 10
Atlanta’s offensive line has been one of the most underrated things of the NFL season to date and Arthur Smith’s run game has been very good for long stretches already this year. While the Falcons are more talented than you think, there are still holes in some very important spots. Particularly, QB or edge.
Marcus Mariota has done a nice job giving Atlanta’s offense balance as a reliable run threat and Desmond Ridder continues to develop. However, there’s still no firm long-term answer there. Defensively, 2021 first-rounder Arnold EbiketieAlthough he has had a great start as a rookie, he still needs to improve his game. The Falcons Grady JarrettEbiketie, Ebiketie are the only things you can rely on defensively up front right now.
You’ve seen some of the numbers in our write-ups above, but if you’re curious, here is how Austin Mock’s projections have the top 10 sorting out for the 2023 NFL Draft:
Austin Mock’s Top 10 Projections
(Top Photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images
