NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in Martinsville odds, picks – Who will make it to the Championship 4?

Two races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. This weekend, in Martinsville, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field will grow from eight to four. The championship race will take place in Phoenix.

Joey Logano is already guaranteed a spot among the top four drivers, thanks to his win at Las Vegas. He also leads the points standings. Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott and William Byron are also in the top four entering this weekend’s Xfinity 500 at the Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR points standings

Martinsville, at just over half a mile long, is the shortest NASCAR track. What will this mean for the racing, with so many drivers competing for the championship spot? The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi have some answers on what to expect from the Xfinity 500.

Martinsville is the NASCAR’s shortest track. Which cars and drivers does a shorter track benefit?

Gluck: I’m not sure we can reliably answer that question at this point, because it’s all changed with the Next Gen car. This year, the new car has largely turned short tracks into track position races and made the spring Martinsville race one of the worst of the season because drivers couldn’t even get close enough to each other to make contact (let alone pass). So when you’re looking at who to bet on this weekend, it might be better to wait until you see the qualifying results on Saturday. If we take the race as a whole, those who start in the top 5 will have a greater advantage than normal drivers who start around 20th. Keep your hands on the wheel until Saturday afternoon.

Bianchi:Short track racing has seen a lot of changes. Track position has always been an important aspect to racing at Martinsville, however with the old car drivers could still make passes and someone driving up from the back wasn’t an uncommon sight. But in the spring, Martinsville was primarily all about track position as passing proved quite difficult, and the widespread belief is that Sunday’s race will unfold similarly. That said, and not knowing who’s going to qualify where, Hendrick Motorsports had a good handle on this track in the spring with William Byron and Chase Elliott combining to lead 397 laps of a possible 400. Both will be competing on Sunday.

What drivers will Joey Logano be joined by in the Championship 4?

Gluck: We’re currently not expecting a chaotic Martinsville race, which reduces the chance for someone with a decent points cushion to tumble out (by getting caught in a wreck, for example). So I’ll put Ross Chastain and Chase Elliott into the final four as long as they don’t have a disaster in qualifying. Who else? Martinsville has never been won by drivers in must-win situations like Chase Briscoe, Chase Bell and Ryan Blaney. It would be a difficult task to do so right now and it would create an all-time playoff moment. That seems unlikely, so I’ll go with the final spot coming down to William Byron and Denny Hamlin in a coin flip. Byron has won five of his career victories, but Hamlin is still the winner at Martinsville in spring. He also has the highest average finish in each of the four paved short-track races this season.

Bianchi: Here’s what I wrote earlier this week previewing Sunday’s race:

Looking at the standings and who’s currently in and who’s out — and by how much — the picture on who advances to the Championship 4 appears mostly clear. We know Logano has already purchased his ticket. Ross Chastain should be fine, barring anything catastrophic. The 11-point advantage Elliott holds, plus how well he runs at Martinsville, gives confidence he’ll join Logano and Chastain in the next round.

Blaney, Hamlin, and Byron are the final three. Both Byron and Hamlin can go on by points, whereas winning is Blaney’s only realistic avenue. That’s a tough situation to be in, so Blaney is out.

The decisive factor is that Hamlin, while considered the Martinsville master, won there in spring and Hamlin failed. It’s hard to envision Hamlin closing the performance gap enough where he can outrun Byron.

Are you expecting driver cuts to go down to the last lap like we got last round in Charlotte or will things be more settled in the final stretch of this weekend’s race?

Gluck: This is a common occurrence, and there are only five points between Byron & Hamlin. Assuming both qualify well and gain stage points in the first half of the race, it’s absolutely possible to see the final spot come down to a couple positions – or even a tiebreaker. That said, if it’s tough to pass then a strategy call might end up deciding the final spot instead of a dramatic pass on track.

Bianchi: The points are too tight to think this won’t come down to the final laps Sunday. Expect a scenario like we usually see in this race: lots of chaos over the final laps that lends itself to the standings continually shuffling and not knowing who’s advanced until the checkered flag waves.

Which longshots stand a chance of winning this weekend?

Gluck: I don’t think it would be shocking to see Brad Keselowski win this week (he’s +2800, so I’ll count that as a longshot). Chris Buescher, Keselowski’s teammate, won the most recent short track race last month at Bristol. Keselowski was the leader of 109 laps until he had a tire problem. When you look at Keselowski’s body of work at Martinsville, he has finished in the top five of nearly half his career races there (12 of 25 times) and won twice. I believe Keselowski can deliver another solid performance on Sunday.

Bianchi: AJ Allmendinger. You did read that right. This makes Allmendinger an intriguing sleeper. He has twice finished second in this race. Consider that Allmendinger is on a hot streak, having placed ninth or better in six of his previous Cup starts. His +4000 odds of winning offer some attractive value.

Who do you think will win the race?

Gluck: We still don’t have a ton of data with this Next Gen car on short tracks, as there have been only four such paved races this season (one Martinsville, one Bristol and two Richmonds). While Martinsville stands on its own as a unique track – with its paperclip shape and lack of banking – you could look at a combination of short tracks and flat tracks to see who might be good. That might be Joey Logano (+900), who is already in the final four. It causes a bit of hesitation because Logano and his team are likely focused on Phoenix and haven’t put a ton of effort into Martinsville, which means nothing to them in terms of the championship. That said, Logano also won’t have to chase stage points like some of the other contenders and can simply go with a strategy to try and win. Given his record on flat/short tracks recently (a win at Gateway, 222 laps led at Richmond before finishing sixth), it’s possible Logano could pull off a Martinsville victory as well. Logano finished second at Martinsville in the spring.

Bianchi: Jeff cited many reasons Logano is a good choice. The dominance Hendrick Motorsports displayed in spring can’t be overlooked. Chase Elliott is the clear choice, having won his second Martinsville race to secure himself in the Championship 4 for the third year.

Xfinity 500 odds

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(Photo by Chase Elliott: John David Mercer / USA Today