Market share is more important than target and touch numbers. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency for the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. Pass-catchers divide market share by the number of team pass attempts. It is the touches that are divided for running backs by team plays from scrimage (not team touches).
Snap counts, depth and type of touch (RB carries have a higher value than running back receptions), are important but not discussed here. This is simply market share. This can be used to evaluate waivers or trades.
Here’s the list. Make sure you select the current week. All weeks of the season will also be archived. If you want, you can obtain a multi-week sample of a player. As the season progresses, you will notice that these stats are not only for the current week but also for the entire season. Here, the goal is to react quickly to trends. All of this just makes it more difficult to respond to current trends. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Running back touches
Damien HarrisIt didn’t matter that it was back Rhamondre StevensonThe bell cow with the fourth-highest touch rate of 39.6% and an absurd target rate of 28.6% was this one. He’s a RB1 now.
Aaron JonesNot only are they surpassed AJ Dillon, amazingly, Dillon didn’t even chart. Jones was seventh but it’s even better since he had 10 targets (28.6% target rate). Upgrade Jones. Do not trade Jones. Aaron RodgersOn Pat McAfee ShowShow, spoke for approximately five minutes last week about Aaron Jones’ need to get the ball more.
D’Onta ForemanHad only 50% snaps, but better usage, however Chuba Hubbard may have had better usage if not for a “minor” ankle injury that kept him sidelined for much of the second half.
Brian Robinson Jr.It was 12th. I don’t care about catches if you’re 12th and get the goal line work. But the bigger issue is that he doesn’t look that good and Antonio GibsonPerhaps it looks better. The Commanders don’t seem to like Gibson much though. Robinson is now a RB2 and Gibson a RB3. This is more fluid than in most other situations.
Michael CarterIt was 17th. This is what I believe will hold. I see. James RobinsonAs a change of pace back, Carter dominating the first down and third-down snaps. Robinson’s median yards per carry is 2.0, which is pathetic (half his carries 2.0 yards or less). He’s lost a step for sure and wasn’t fast to begin with. I’d be buying Carter now.
Even without James Robinson, it’s still a great day. Travis EtienneHe was 24th in our rankings. I’d sell if anyone thinks he’s a RB1. Etienne is worse off because Etienne has more competition for carries. JaMycal HastyThe admiration of, JaguarsWith his speed. I’d grab Hasty for a zero bid this week in the second wave of waivers.
Kenyan Drake is a hold at 30th, which is where we thought he’d be. His terrible efficiency (five yards on 11 runs) was after historically high efficiency (over 10 yards per vs. GiantsIs it possible to eliminate future volume possibilities? Well, Gus EdwardsHe hasn’t played in almost two years, and is less than one year away from ACL surgery. Edwards gets 20-25% and Edwards has to have 17% touches of snaps. Who will it be? Justice Hill had a horrible fumble and he’s a year removed from an Achilles tear.
I would be slightly excited to get my hands on it. Keaontay ingramFor nothing, the ghost of James ConnerIt is expected to return this week and the CardinalsConner was paid, and presumably will be playing him at least as a complement Eno Benjamin. Pass it on to Ingram.
Leonard FournetteHe does not look fast now, but he still has plenty of room to catch up to the worst offensive line in football. The Bucs have to shake things up and that may come at Fournette’s expense. It’s a good idea.
Man, tweets are a waste of time Isiah Pacheco. It doesn’t matter who starts. This is a passing team. None of the running backs is good. It’s going to be a three-man committee or the Chiefswill make a huge move for a real RB.
Kareem HuntTrade (42nd) is necessary. I guess he can’t go to the Chiefs due to his history there. But he’s playing somewhere, so why not? (Please don’t take this as defending Hunt’s conduct while a member of the Chiefs.) If I was Hunt, I would trade Hunt for a fourth-round selection. Jets. James Robinson was half-measure.
Receiving Targets
DeAndre HopkinsIt was No. With a rate of almost 50%, he was No. It is simply amazing. This is what people should stop doing. Rondale MooreBy the way. If you’re under 5-foot-8, I don’t want to hear about you unless you’re some circus freak like Tyreek HillHe is a powerful man despite being short. I can’t even imagine trying to tackle Tyreek Hill running at me full speed.
MoJo.com I created a projection pieceon Wan’Dale RobinsonIt gave him 94 career catch. It looked silly in the first half of Week 7, but Robinson was then hurt while hauling in the short passes, and did little the second half. He’s just not built to stand up to that kind of underneath work in the NFL. He can only do underneath work.
DJ MooreMarket share was second. P.J. Walker made a ton of throws graded “big-time.” You have to play Moore.
Kyle PittsFinished third at 38.5%. I can’t believe the passing volume for the Falcons. It’s a nightmare. It shouts for regression. But they refuse pass regardless. You just can’t cut a talent like this with this market share but I get not being able to start him. It’s just a disaster. Combining the draft capital and the model, it kind of freezes us.
An automatic pickup is usually 30%+ This was Equanimeous St. BrownMonday night. However, this wide receiver is something I still need to see in order to believe it.
I’m in on Noah Brown Parris Campbell(14th & 15th, respectively). Michael GallupIt is not yet open and clearly isn’t all the way back to knee surgery. Brown is good enough. He’s got the makings of a red zone receiver, too, something the CowboysOtherwise, it would be lacking.
Campbell has been targeted heavily for 2 weeks consecutively and has been replaced Alec PierceAs the No. 2 Colts receiver. He’s at least a flex now.
JuJu Smith – SchusterThe Niners’ playing zone was a huge benefit to Smith-Schuster. Smith-Schuster is a pure zone beater. If the opponent plays man, which teams do far more often than normal so far against the Chiefs, Smith-Schuster is dead because he can’t separate. His Week 7 was very contextual. Don’t believe it.
I’m not rubbing anyone’s nose in it but the people who passed on Ja’Marr Chase because “I can just get Tee Higgins, who is just as good” were insane — Higgins was 59th in Week 7. Open your eyes, people! Higgins is an excellent player. Chase is the NFL’s best young receiver. There is no comparison. Don’t overthink things. That’s all I ask.
This model is all about possibilities and Cade Otton’sThese were not met. However, his efficiency was outstanding (64 yards per target). He’s really the only thing that Tom BradyHe is used to having what he needs. Mike EvansIt is on the downside. Chris Godwin is clearly still working his way back from major knee surgery and can’t separate or break tackles. There’s no real nickel receiving back. There’s no real slot receiver. Otton has a TE who can be athletic and work the seams. I expect Otton’s target rate to double in the coming weeks.
(Top photo by Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sport)
