If you’re a team with an elite defense and constant Super Bowl expectations but an offense that could use a major dynamic upgrade, you might want to invent a trade market that includes somebody exactly like Christian McCaffreyA team that is ready to sell off like the Carolina Panthers.
And if you’re McCaffrey, presuming you have any say in the matter, you might want to try to conjure a pathway to the 49ersYou have the right combination of title aspirations, an offensive system, Bay Area setting and a head coach.
Wait, these are not two distinct things. The 49ers should trade McCaffrey before the Nov. 1 deadline. If terms can be worked out, McCaffrey should find 49ers appealing. McCaffrey could also find the 49ers attractive if he decides to stay in Carolina long-term.
I looked around. I think there’s little doubt that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch are intrigued by the idea of acquiring McCaffrey to electrify a 49ers offense that is not exactly lighting up the scoreboard or statistical categories to start this season; and I think McCaffrey’s camp is probably quite interested in the possibility, too.
That doesn’t mean any trade is a lock, of course. The Panthers are the ones who have ultimate control and will drive hard for McCaffrey’s best interests in any McCaffrey deal negotiations. McCaffrey is available for bid by many other teams. Some of these could be great fits for McCaffrey. The price tag might be too high for the 49ers, who already don’t have next year’s first-round pick because it is owed to Miami, the final part of the deal to acquire Trey Lance, and don’t often put a high value on the running-back position.
The NFL Network’s recent report that Carolina would want two first-round picks for McCaffrey is clearly outlandishly optimistic and probably worth disregarding. The Panthers will need something in return for McCaffrey’s excellent performance and for the $26 million annual dead-cap. They should get something. If the Panthers say it’s a 2023 first-round pick or no deal, the 49ers simply can’t get into that market.
There are always problems. There are always problems. But this situation might have a few different aspects that make McCaffrey-to-the-49ers something beyond just wishful thinking. Let’s go through them:
McCaffrey would be exactly what the 49ers’ offense needs
He’s been hurt a lot the past two seasons, but in 2019, his last healthy full season, McCaffrey put up what might be the ideal Shanahan-style RB stat line: 287 carries for 1,387 yards, a 4.8-yard average and 15 rushing touchdowns, plus 116 receptions for 1,005 yards and another 4 TDs. What would Shanahan do with a multipurpose threat that can reach the end zone 19 times? McCaffrey should be assigned to one area of the field. Deebo SamuelTo the other, what would defenses do?
The key here, for the 49ers’ evaluation, is that McCaffrey hits home runs as a runner receiver andThe chains are consistently moved. The 49ers haven’t had a home-run RB threat since Raheem MostertThey were hurt to start the season. And they’re having trouble picking up first downs this season. McCaffrey, if healthy, can do both. McCaffrey was responsible for 115 first-downs in 2019, which is more than 7 per week. (In comparison, the 49ers’ high first-down guy last year was Deebo with 72 — 51 via the pass, 21 via the run — which is a lot and also tells you about McCaffrey’s 2019 output). How many first downs have the 49ers picked up in six games this season? This number is 111. That’s an average of 18.5 yards per game and 25th in the league.
McCaffrey is 26 years old and has been a part of every Panthers game this season. He’s picked up 30 first downs (20 rushing and 10 receiving) out of the Panthers’ 79. Fully 38 percent of Carolina’s first downs have come from McCaffrey. The 49ers’ leading first-down guy is Jeff Wilson Jr., who has 20 total — 18 picked up via the run and two via the pass — which is 16 percent of the 49ers’ total.
Jimmy GaroppoloHe isn’t going to be a great passer downfield. However, McCaffrey running a deeper route from the slot might be more preferable. Charlie WoernerRay-Ray McCloud, or Ray McCloud; and 2) McCaffrey or Deebo to do the screens and quick turns would not be a fun thing to do for opponent defenses.
Plus, given McCaffrey’s family ties to Shanahan from Ed McCaffrey’s days playing for Mike Shanahan in Denver, you know there’s a lot of familiarity there.
McCaffrey and the 49ers are likely to be real title contenders while they wait for these two games.
Shanahan stated this week that he believes that the 49ers are still in contention despite all of their injuries. Philadelphiaand a few others, but not too far behind. With every chance to get in January and beyond.
I don’t think he’s being delusional. But the next two weekends — Sunday at home against the ChiefsOctober 30 at SoFi Stadium, against the Rams — should be very real midseason indicators. If the 49ers find a way to win both games, they’ll be 5-3 going into their bye, clearly atop the NFC West and possibly emerging as the Eagles’ top threat in the NFC. If the 49ers lose both, then they’re 3-5 and some hard questions would need to be asked (though, of course, they were 3-5 last season then rallied all the way to the NFC Championship Game). If they split the two games, that’d be 4-4 going into the bye and, unless there’s another serious wave of injuries, I think Shanahan and Lynch would be feeling fairly good.
That’s even with Garoppolo at QB after the Lance injury, though that’s not quite how Shanahan and Lynch are thinking. Garoppolo is the one who has taken the 49ers to Super Bowl in recent years. He’s playing just fine now. In all six of their games, the 49ers have outgained each opponent. They’re averaging 5.7 yards per play and only giving up 4.2 yards per play. They were 6.1 yards per play and 5.1 last year. It isn’t crazy for them to think that they’re on the brink and that McCaffrey could possibly push them over.
For comparison’s sake, in 2019, the 49ers acquired soon-to-be-free-agent Emmanuel Sanders at the trade deadline from the BroncosThird- and fourth-round draft picks. Lynch and Shanahan were keen to do it back then as they knew they had a top-level defense and needed an increase in the receiver corps. Deebo was a rookie. Kendrick Bourne Marquise Goodwin. And Sanders gave them everything they could’ve wanted, helping the 49ers to the Super Bowl that season.
McCaffrey plus Deebo are the 49ers’ plus George Kittle plus Brandon AiyukShanahan has a great defense. Do you think Shanahan would shudder to the thought of facing the Eagles in Philadelphia? He would not be in shuddering.
The 49ers could dominate the market and offer the Panthers most
Are the 49ers willing to trade their 2023 second-round selection? I think if they did, that would probably get this deal done because it doesn’t seem to be the hottest market for McCaffrey right now, partly because of all the money he’s owed in the future. The second-rounder might not be available. The Panthers just need the most picks they can get, because there’s a chance they’d have to trade McCaffrey at a deeper discount in the offseason with all the money he’s due in the future.
What if the 49ers offered a 2023 second-rounder (they have third-rounders comp due) and a fifth rounder that could both move up one round if they reach the Super Bowl? I doubt the Panthers would accept more than that, but they may be willing to pay McCaffrey a favor by getting him to a top spot. What if the Rams beat that offer? The Rams would be the best team in this bid? Bills? At this point, I’m not sure. If absolutely necessary, I believe the 49ers would be willing to go higher.
McCaffrey could talk with the 49ers about adjusting his future wages if he truly wants to play for them. McCaffrey has a base salary of $11.8 million in 2023. This is a huge number for the 49ers who pay huge salaries. Trent Williams, Kittle, Fred WarnerSamuel and a huge salary are planned for Nick BosaMcCaffrey would like a running back earning that amount in his next deal. What if McCaffrey would be willing to lower that number, perhaps to $7 million or 8 million? Are the 49ers interested? I think that’s worth a discussion, and if they can understand they’d be getting McCaffrey for at least this season and next, that would add value to this trade.
A former agent cleverly pointed out this fact. Joel Corry in a CBSSports.com StoryMcCaffrey’s realistic price tag might reflect a deal made 23 years ago. ColtsMarshall Faulk was sent to the Rams by the Rams in exchange for picks in the second and fifth rounds.
Six years into the Lynch Shanahan era, the 49ers finally sit here with this roster. They reached the Super Bowl in year 3. Tom BradyAsking to be a part of the team in the next offseason. They considered it and kept Garoppolo. They were logical in this. This was undoubtedly what they regretted when Brady won the Super Bowl with them the following season. Tampa BayGaroppolo was unable to overcome an injury-marred campaign. Now they’ve got McCaffrey sitting right there. I don’t think Shanahan and Lynch want to skip this one. They might not end up with McCaffrey, but I think the odds are moving their way and they’re probably quite willing to keep tilting the board for him.
(Photo: Bob Donnan / USA Today)
