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The A Republican tsunami appears to be in motion into every part of the country – from Oregon and Washington State to Rhode Island.
This is how it happens When big wave elections take place.They spread everywhere. Sometimes, races that appear hopeless are suddenly hopeful. Races that look hopeful suddenly appear winnable.
I watched Democrat tsunamisI saw them in 1958, 1974 and 2006. I saw Republican tsunamis in 1958, 1974, and 2006.
Regular patterns begin to form after Labor Day. People start to think about voting and their calculations change. The situation is the same this year. The October 401(k), statements were sent at the beginning of October. They will reinforce and intensify unhappiness about President Joe Biden, the Democrats, and their policies. These feelings will lead to an even larger Republican wave.
President Joe Biden and other Democrats want to delay sweeping GOP victories during the midterms.
(AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
It seems that races that should be considered safe for Democrats are now competitive.
I recently received an email from Barry Casselman, an old friend and long-time election analyst who writes a regular newsletter on politics. He wrote to me on Saturday, “Now Connecticut?” He explained that a new poll found that Democrat Sen. Richard Blumenthal was only leading Republican challenger Leora Levy by five points (49% to 44%). He was leading by 13 points in a poll that had him above 50% two weeks prior. Casselman simply asked: “Can CT still be in play?”
I spoke with people who knew Connecticut politics better than me, and they were surprisingly positive.
Any incumbent Democrat below 50 years old is vulnerable in this year. Bob Stefanowski, a Republican candidate for governor in Connecticut is trailing Gov. A Connecticut Examiner poll shows that Ned Lamont is trailing Gov.
It is important to note that the poll was taken before two police officers were brutally killed in Bristol, Connecticut. Lamont was not allowed to speak at the memorial service for officers because he signed a law during Black Lives Matters protests which restricted law enforcement and allowed criminals to go free.
As they do across the nation, crime and inflation seem to be affecting Connecticut voters. And, for Connecticut, being in New York City’s television coverage area has an impact. Watching coverage of New York’s continuing carnage heightens the impact of crime on Connecticut politics.
Blumenthal’s 37 years of service are a problem in this crisis context. As Democrat Patty Murray of Washington, he doesn’t have anything to show for six terms as U.S. Senate. People are looking for action – not excuses.
Tiffany Smiley, Republican candidate in Washington State for the U.S. Senate is interviewed in Washington DC, Monday, September 20, 2021.
(Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images
Nearly two-thirds (65%) of Connecticut residents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. The majority of voters want a Republican focused on lowering the prices and not a Democrat that will make abortion legal, 48% to 43%. The head-to-head ballot between Levy and Blumenthal is a single-digit race despite Blumenthal’s massive spending advantage against a first-time candidate. Only 42% of Connecticutans believe that the incumbent has been reelected. 50 percent of Connecticuters would love to see someone else succeed.
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This all happens in a state without traditional in-person voting and strict absentee vote rules. It will be decided on election day – and turnout is expected to be high.
This makes Connecticut an attractive target for Republicans. At the same time, you see Tiffany Smiley running a great campaign in Washington state. You see Herschel Walker outperforming his competition in Georgia. And you see former Democrat Tulsi Gabbard campaigning with retired Republican Gen. Donald Bolduc for the New Hampshire Senate seat.
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A tide is coming. What we don’t know is how big and how decisive that tide will be.
Even well-funded, comfortable Democrats may find themselves in serious trouble if the tsunami continues to grow.
When people start making up their minds based on their own lives – and their own pocketbooks – then all the advertising in the world simply does not work.
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