Final verdict: Twins didn’t put up a fight. Actually, in the end, they didn’t even make it to the end.
It is necessary to defeat the GuardiansThe Twins lost at least three, and perhaps four, times during the five-day, five game showdown in Cleveland to keep their sinking playoff hopes alive. They also lost the first three games and four of five overall. They have been reduced as bystanders in a division race which they dominated for most of the season.
The Twins lost nine of the last 10 games against the Guardians, which was meant to be drama. The Twins lead the division by five games, and were tied for first place as recently Sept. 4. They will be spending the last three weeks of the 2022 season just playing the string.
There’s no need to analyze playoff odds or compare the remaining schedules for the stretch run. There’s no need to worry about the lockout-created quirk that allows the Guardians to finish with six straight home games against the lowly RoyalsThe Twins will be on the road against them while they are there White Sox. None of that matters because the Twins couldn’t play well enough to make it matter.
May was the Twins’ last winning month. Their May 24th win was their highest-ever. It saw them 11 games above.500, and lead the AL Central by 5 1/2. They’ve gone 46-58 since, stumbling along at a 90-loss pace for four months, during which time the Twins have barely been better than the Royals (44-61) and Tigers (41-63).
Goodbye to you all!#ForTheLand | #GuardiWWWins pic.twitter.com/3syXGjjAGO
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) September 18, 2022
There’s no way around the role injuries played in the Twins’ struggles. They’ve placed an AL-high 31 players on the injured list for more than 2,000 total days, and in the biggest series of the season they trotted out half of a Triple-A roster, without Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Tyler Mahle, Royce Lewis, Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Alex KirilloffThese and many other things.
That’s been the case all season, and it would be silly to deny the reality of how damaging that many injuries can be to a team’s ability to remain in contention. It would be absurd to say that injuries can excuse losing nine out of 10 games to the Guardians or spending four months playing like the Royals or Tigers. Injuries should not be a reason for all things.
Even if the Twins were able to fight back down the stretch, but came up short, it might have been a positive sign, or at the very least a mark of a noble effort under difficult circumstances. But to simply collapse, losing almost every matchup to the team you’re chasing in a division so awful it made falling out of the race nearly impossible, is beyond excuses.
This team was never healthy. However, it also didn’t get the rotation help it needed. Quick-hook Management of StartersBecause of the implosion-prone bullpen it never scored consistently with runners in scoring place and its poor, inconsistent baserunning and fielding. This team may have been better if healthy, but it certainly didn’t deserve better.
After finishing 14th in 2020, the Twins now have a below-average pitchers staff for the fourth consecutive year under a Derek Falvey-led management. That might be acceptable for a young staff on the rise, but the Twins have gotten just 13 starts from 25-and-under pitchers all season and rank as the league’s fifth-oldest staff overall.
Trade for Sonny GrayIn mid-March, it was a smart move. However, trades for Mahle were made. Chris Paddack, Jorge LópezAnd Emilio PagánFailures were so severe that bargain-bin agents signed without any agent Dylan Bundy, Chris ArcherJoe Smith Provided little value. The gamble that young pitchers would step up to fill the gaps was a failure.
Matt Wallner’s debut career hit is a homer against Shane Bieber (ex-Cy Young winner). The Minnesota native’s family is there too, and they are going crazy.
This is a fantastic moment. pic.twitter.com/mmGDxfrXAx
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) September 17, 2022
It’s possible that a healthy lineup could have offset that lack of pitching, but the Twins rarely had their offensive core together at any point,And by the time they arrived in Cleveland they were turning to Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave, Kyle Garlick and Sandy LeónRegulars: Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Billy HamiltonAnd Caleb HamiltonOn the bench.
Twins outfielders have hit an AL-worst .202 with a .585 OPS since Aug. 1, including .167 in September, yet they didn’t call up top outfield prospect Matt WallnerFrom Triple-A St. Paul up to their playoff chances were single digits. They never called up Edouard Julien, Double-A on base machine Edouard Julien, to fill in for Polanco. This would have been a huge mistake. Nick GordonFor outfield duties.
It is no longer an excuse to not spend enough. This season’s $140 million payroll is exactly average among MLBTeams and ranks second in the AL Central. Cleveland will likely win the division with a payroll below $70 million and spending half the amount as the Twins. It’s not the payroll available to the front office that’s the problem. It’s how they’ve spent it.
Now they’re out of the playoff picture with three weeks remaining, and already facing an offseason with many big questions and few satisfying answers. Why is the front desk so inept at signing and trading veteran pitchers who are healthy and fit? Why hasn’t the long-awaited pitching pipeline produced more young, impact arms? Why can’t the training staff keep anyone healthy?
Perhaps the most important offseason question of all: Should anyone expect the Twins’ to be significantly more successful next season?
Carlos CorreaAs has been the case ever since he signed, Royce Lewis, the team’s leader in Wins Above Replacement is likely to leave. Royce Lewis is his natural replacement until midseason. All rotation depth is dependent on Mahle and Paddack. Kenta MaedaOther injured starters remain healthy. It is unknown how many games Lewis Buxton and Kirilloff will be involved in.
After back-to-back disappointing, frustrating seasons, it’s clear that the status quo isn’t working. There are large roster gaps that need to filled and big-picture issues that need answering about the front desk, coaching staff, and pitching pipeline. The team must change its approach to things, or the people who do it. This isn’t good enough.
(Photo by Oscar GonzalezNick Gordon and Ken Blaze: USA Today
