F1 Mexican Grand Prix Preview, Picks, Odds: Sergio Perez hosts, while Max Verstappen is there for history

Both Formula One championships are over and there are three races left. Although there are still some interesting stories to be followed down the last stretch of the season it is not worth the effort, as most of them are far from the track.

The drama continues about Red Bull’s cost cap controversy, open driver’s seats at Haas and Williams for 2023 and the fresh news of Audi joining the series 2025. Max Verstappen will be attempting to break the record for most wins in an F1 season. He broke that record (13), but did so in Austin in one race more than Michael Schumacher and as many races overall as Sebastian Vettel in 2013. Verstappen could win the record in more races that Schumacher or Vettel. Verstappen, however, has already been successful in this race. We are quick to acknowledge that.

There are also lower positions in the standings. Charles Leclerc is currently in second place, with Sergio Perez in close contention. Although Perez is just two points ahead of Leclerc in the points, he hosts this weekend’s race. Perez has won five of the six home grand prix starts and was on his way to his first podium last year. He could win his first Mexican victory this weekend.

The Track

Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez

After you have completed the following: Record crowd of 440,000F1 was packed in Austin this weekend. Now, F1 is heading to Mexico City, which hosts another popular race. Mexico hosted its first F1 race back in 1963. But it has been around for decades. The initial run lasted eight years, but F1 didn’t return again until 1986. Mexico was removed from F1 in 1993 to 2014.

Mexico City hosted an F1 race in 2015. The track’s layout was altered to include the stadium section. This is the most iconic visual element of the track. The stadium section has two slow turns at the end of each lap. It is located in an ex-baseball stadium.

This is the highest elevation race in the year, making it hard on drivers and cars.

Verstappen is the only driver to have won more times here than any other driver. None of these wins were from pole position. Nine of Verstappen’s 13 wins this season came from outside pole position. Including Lewis Hamilton’s win in Mexico in 2019, the last four winners of this race have not started on pole.

Mexican Grand Prix Preview

Before the race in Mexico City, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, Motorsports reporters, answered some questions.

What do you expect from Sergio Perez at his home grand prix in Mexico? Is it possible for him to win or does it seem more likely that he will finish on the podium?

Gluck: If he didn’t have to worry about Max Verstappen, it would be a lot more likely for Perez to get a win. Verstappen could still be eliminated from the race. But in general, you’d think Perez would be headed for a podium spot rather than a victory – especially given the opportunity for Verstappen to break the F1 single-season wins record this weekend.

Bianchi: It’s going to be hard for Perez to beat his Red Bull teammate, as Verstappen is just on another level right now, but should Verstappen stumble Perez should be in position to capitalize. A second possibility is that Verstappen, his good teammate, will help Perez in the final lap of the race, so that he can win in front all his home fans. Verstappen certainly doesn’t need the points, and if you remember, Perez pulled over late in the Spanish Grand Prix so that his teammate could take the win. Verstappen kinda owes Perez one.

Verstappen has equalled the all-time wins record (13) in a Formula One season. How many races will Verstappen finish with, now that he has three races remaining?

Gluck: I’ll say 15, and it’s even tempting to say he wins out and gets 16. It feels like no matter what happens in the race right now – even an 11-second pit stop, like in Austin last week – Verstappen just overcomes it and wins anyway. He’s scored a victory in seven of the last eight races and has his competitors practically conceding the win before the race even starts. As Lewis Hamilton noted last week, Verstappen came out in third place – six seconds behind Hamilton – made up all the ground and still finished five seconds ahead. That’s a ton of pace that Ferrari and Mercedes simply cannot match right now.

Bianchi: Fifteen is a good number, though him running the table won’t be shocking in the least bit. Red Bull being significantly ahead of Ferrari, Mercedes, and Verstappen means that he would need to be victorious. And then, even when things do go sideways, he’s still capable of overcoming any setbacks — exactly like what unfolded at COTA.

Which driver, or teammate with a new driver in 2022 was the most impressive to you this year?

Gluck: George Russell is the easy answer, based upon his overall strength with Mercedes. But at the same time, isn’t that what we expected out of Russell when he replaced Valtteri Bottas? Russell came into the season with high hopes and has done well with the third-best car on the grid, but it also hasn’t been a huge surprise by any means. Bottas was a star in the first half of the season, finishing in the points seven out of nine races. But then Bottas hasn’t been better than 11th since then. It comes down to Alex Albon and Kevin Magnussen for me. Albon seems to have done the most with the least. He scored in the points three more times with a 14.1 average finish, while Nicholas Latifi only has one point finish with a 16.2 standard result.

Bianchi: Stepping into a situation where you’re teammates with Hamilton and driving for Mercedes brings with it an enormous amount of pressure, and it’s not something many drivers would be able to handle well. Even though Mercedes was struggling at the start of the season, Russell has done a great job of adjusting to the situation. Often the best measuring stick is your own teammate and when you compare Russell’s performance with that of Hamilton it’s hard not to be impressed with Russell accumulating more points and a better average finish than his more experienced and accomplished teammate.

Repetition of the question from last week: If Verstappen wins the race, then who are your top picks for the podium?

Gluck: Sergio Perez finishes second and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc finishes third. Mercedes still isn’t close enough to compete with the top two teams on raw speed and Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz might struggle with his fitness after not completing a single racing lap in the last two events (crashed in the rain at Suzuka, got spun from the pole in Turn 1 at Austin).

Bianchi: Verstappen doesn’t win this week. Instead, it’s Perez celebrating on the top step of the podium before a jubilant crowd. Red Bull has yet another 1-2 sweep with Verstappen finishing second.

Formula One driver standings: Top 10

Perez was second in Austin, and Leclerc was third. The final race of the season will be decided by the back-and forth battle for second.

Formula One constructor standings

Red Bull has clinched the title so all that’s left is jockeying for lower positions and there are plenty of spots that are very close. Ferrari leads Mercedes by a significant margin, but Mercedes could be beaten by a double retirement. McLaren and Alpine are competing for fourth. Alfa Romeo is the winner. Audi will be Audi in 2026Aston Martin is sixth, one point behind. AlphaTauri is two points behind Haas for eighth.

These battles might not be exciting for everyone, but they are vital for teams financially and in terms of prize money.

Mexican Grand Prix odds

Verstappen isn’t quite as big of a favorite in Mexico City as he was in Austin, but he’s still a heavy favorite. The top six drivers lead the pack by a wide margin. Fernando Alonso, Lando Norris, and Fernando Alonso both trail Red Bull, Ferraris and Mercedes drivers 100-to-1.

(Photo by Sergio Perez: Jerome Miron/USA Today)