Criminality is on the riseMany Republicans running for Senate in major American cities have placed the issue front and center of their campaigns.
Recent Poll indicatesJust weeks before the November midterm elections, voters think Republicans are better equipped to deal with the issue of abortion.
The survey by Langer Research Associates in New York City found that 89% of voters considered the economy, education, and inflation to be the most important issues. However, these issues were closely followed at 69% by crime, beating out 62%.
To better understand whether the GOP’s focus on crime rates in key midterm battleground states taking a bite out of Senate Democrats midterm momentum in the polls, Fox News Digital contacted political experts from both sides of the aisle to get their assessment.
DEMOCRATS IN COMPETITIVE HOME RACES FLIPFLOP ABOUT CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROVISIONS.
Police tape at crime scene
(Photo by ANDRI TAMBUNAN/AFP via Getty Images
Corry Bliss, partner at FP1 Strategies, former executive director for the Congressional Leadership Fund & American Action Network:
“Democrats put forward woke candidates who rock Defund the Police t-shirts while voters see cities in critical swing states like Milwaukee and Cincinnati overtaken by violent crime. Any Democratic candidate who has tried to soften on crime policies, such as eliminating cash bail or playing nice with radical activists trying divert dollars to law enforcement, will face serious problems so long that some voters are unable to safely walk down their street.
Corry Bliss, partner at FP1 Strategies, former executive director for the Congressional Leadership Fund & American Action Network
(Corry Bliss)
Robert Cahaly Senior Strategist and Pollster, Trafalgar Group
“I don’t believe” [Democrats]They do not have any midterm momentum. “I believe the polls of the last three weeks would show that they do not have any momentum. The GOP’s focus upon crime is one reason why they don’t have momentum.”
Robert Cahaly is senior strategist and pollster at Trafalgar Group
(Robert Cahaly)
Lis Smith, former senior adviser to Pete Buttigieg for 2020 presidential campaign, and author of Any Given Tuesday. A Political Love Story.
“There are three certainties in life — death, taxes, and RepublicansStopping campaigns that promote crime. These attacks were clearly visible to any Democratic campaign worth their salt. That’s why smart candidates like Mark Kelly, Val Demings, and Tim Ryan (among others) prebutted these attacks before they even started. So I don’t think these attacks will have the same resonance that they did in 2020 when Democrats were on the defensive on defund the police.”
Lis Smith, former senior advisor for Pete Buttigieg’s 2020 presidential campaign and author of <i>Any Given Tuesday, A Political Love Story</i>
(JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images
Erin Perrine (Vice President of Tag Strategies), former communications director for Sen. Ted Cruz and former national press secretary to House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy
“Americans have seen their crime rates rise across the country, with Republicans shaming Democrats in competitive races for being soft about crime is working. We’ve seen the lead flip in recent Wisconsin polls in favor of Sen. Ron Johnson, who has ads hitting his opponent Mandela Barnes for his past support for Defunding the PoliceCriminals should be released from prison. This message resonates in Wisconsin which saw some of the worst riots in 2020. Pennsylvania’s race is the same. Polls are tightening significantly in Pennsylvania after Dr. Oz, his allies, and John Fetterman were hammered for being procriminal and wanting one-third of Pennsylvania’s prison population to be released.
Erin Perrine is vice president of Tag Strategies and was previously the communications director for Senator Ted Cruz. She also served as the national press secretary for House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy.
(Erin Perrine)
CRIME AND ABORTION ARE PRIMARY ISSUES IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS
Neil Newhouse, pollster, and co-founder at Public Opinion Strategies.
“Based on current polling over the past ten days or so, it feels like the Democrats’ momentum has stalled, with both Biden’s numbers flat and the generic a dead heat. It is a problem for their hopes of holding onto the election. House in November.”
“No question that the GOP has an advantage on crime, as D’s are still saddled with the ‘defund’ movement from two years ago. Both immigration and crime could play important secondary roles in this campaign, especially if the inflation issue starts to fade. Further, crime is a top concern among suburban women — a key constituency this fall.”
Neil Newhouse, pollster and cofounder of Public Opinion Strategies
(Neil Newhouse)
Hari Sevugan is a former National Press Secretary for the Democratic National Committee and founder of Narrator Message and Media.
According to the 538 congressional ballot average, Democrats are now at their highest level since June. Dems are now up to a 5 point lead in this morning’s Reuters poll. According to the Fox News poll, Democrats are up 10 points since May and have increased three points over the last month in comparison to Republicans. This is not surprising, as gas prices continue to drop. The voters will be asked to choose between Republicans who want a federal ban on abortion and to end Medicare/Social Security as it is now.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
“It seems like Republican messaging about crime has played some role in Republican Senate candidatesOver the past few weeks, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have seen their positions improve. The other thing is that Republicans are often comfortable talking about crime, and they feel like they have an advantage on that issue — unlike, say, abortion, where Democrats feel like they have an advantage and Republicans do not.”
Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
(Kyle Kondik)
Jesse Ferguson, Democratic strategist, ex-deputy national press secretary and senior spokesperson in the 2016 Hillary Clinton presidential campaign.
“These GOP seats in PA, WI were always going down to the wire. People were too down about the prospects of Democrats in Pennsylvania last spring, and too bullish this summer. This was the trend once the campaign got going, and it will continue until election day.
Doug Usher, pollster at Forbes Tate and partner:
“I suppose the question is, where have the polls been and where are they going? There has been significant improvement in some states for Democrats. This includes Arizona and Pennsylvania. Some Democrats in New Mexico and Georgia have shown signs of weakness. Although I think that Republican efforts at focusing on crime and inflation are valid across the board, the real question is how much the Dobbs decision will affect turnout.
“What we have seen over the past few elections cycles is that polls, particularly in swing states have undercounted and underrepresented Republicans and especially Trump’s Republican enthusiasm and turnout. Kansas saw an amazing, overwhelming turnout. This was not only among Democrats, but also among independents and Republicans who were focusing on Kansas. AbortionThis was the only issue on ballots. Republicans need to abandon this issue, and we’re seeing mixed results.
Doug Usher is a Forbes Tate pollster and partner.
(Doug Usher)
Rory Cooper, Purple Strategies managing director:
“While it’s difficult to determine exact causes for poll movement, it’s very much in the GOP’s interests to keep the focus on Democrat’s track record on crime, education and inflation, three main drivers that will flip votes. Referendum on this election Joe Biden and his party, they stand a much better chance than if it’s about Donald Trump.”
Rory Cooper, Purple Strategies managing director
(Rory Cooper/Purple Strategies)
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Fox News Digital’s comments in this article were part of a weekend series that asks strategists from different political parties the same questions regarding political hot topics.
