With ArsenalFight for the top Premier League and Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool making a slow start to the season, our writers answer the big questions ahead of Sunday’s big match at the Emirates.
Which team is the favourite to win?
Based on the data, Liverpool is the answer. Using FiveThirtyEight’s predictive model — which accounts for team strength, home advantage and team form — Liverpool have a 43 per cent chance of victory, compared with Arsenal’s 34 per cent (leaving a 23 per cent chance of a draw). While Jurgen Klopp’s men haven’t had the best start to the campaign, there’s no doubting that the overall strength of the squad does just have the edge in terms of quality when compared with Arsenal.
Arsenal are flying, and it is hard to quantify their momentum. Typically, a team at the top of the table should be the favourites against a team lying in 9th — and Arsenal have not had a lucky start. You can see how their rolling average xG (expected Goals) over 10 games shows that their chances of creating a win far outweigh the ones they have lost over a long time. With Gabriel Jesus adding further potency to the forward line, Arsenal’s attacking output is rising. They’re the favorites here, they are certain.
But wait, it’s worth noting Arsenal’s terrible record against Liverpool in recent seasons.
