The Bears Patriots should’ve entered this Monday night matchup as evenly matched teams considering their similar profiles.
Two-year quarterbacks are having a difficult start in 2022. Strong run game. The defense anchors the run game. A strong emphasis on special teams.
But it’s the Patriots who are 7.5-point favorites, and no one is giving the Bears a shot.
The Patriots’ website posted a list of “expert predictions”For the Week 7 game. 23 picks were made, and all 23 selected the home team. This theme continues at the end of the story.
That’s what will happen when it’s Bill Belichick on one side and a first-year head coach on the other. The Patriots are coming off an impressive win in Cleveland while the Bears have lost three consecutive games, most recently losing 12-7 to the Commanders.
Since Thanksgiving 2015, the Bears have been road underdogs for 13 consecutive games. This includes two games this season. This is not all. The Patriots are currently 42-3 at home against second- and first-year quarterbacksThis matchup suddenly looks very lopsided since 2003.
Belichick knew that probably during his seven-minute monologue in praise of the Bears throughout the week.
But hey, pick your favorite cliche about how anything can happen and that’s why they play the games. The Bears deserve it.
Now, on to this week’s mailbag and our Week 7 picks.
How many starters on this year’s O-line will start again next year? — Jim B.
This is a great question and something I’ve been pondering. Who can you look at on the current starting offensive line and definitively say, “This guy will be starting for the Bears come September 2023?” Let’s go down the list.
Left tackle Braxton Jones: There’s still a lot to like about Jones from his size to his maturity to the fact that he’s a very discounted player at his position. But he’s had understandable struggles for a fifth-round rookie from Southern Utah. Jones could be a No.1 or a veteran back for the Bears. 2.
Left guard Cody Whitehair:Next offseason is when the cap savings that Whitehair would bring exceeds the dead cap. This creates an opportunity for us to move forward. He’ll be 31 and was not chosen by this regime. Whitehair is an experienced, steady presence. Ja’Tyre CarterOder Zachary Thomas suddenly ascends, there isn’t a replacement on the roster.
Center Lucas Patrick: He’s probably the most likely to be starting Week 1 2023. I imagine the Bears are hopeful that Patrick will play better when he’s at the position they signed him to play: center. However, he’s on only a two-year deal, so if he doesn’t play to the level the Bears expect, it wouldn’t be hard for them to move on.
Right guard Teven Jenkins:Jenkins has often looked like the Bears’ best offensive lineman this season. That is quite impressive for someone we thought would be traded three months back. But, has he proven enough to be a reliable long-term starter? Will he be able to do it? He’s not a Ryan Poles guy, so his bar might be higher. That’s the reality of the NFL, especially with someone like Jenkins who’s not necessarily on a, “You have to keep this guy” contract.
Right tackle Larry Borom:Second-year player has been solid. It’s a similar situation to Jones — he has the tools, he’s on a very cheap contract, but the Bears could find a new starter in free agency, if not Day 1 or 2 of the draft.
The Bears have 11 games left to prove their worth to the coaching staff and the front office. With a lot to work with and an emphasis on the offensive line in 2023, the next few months should be considered an audition. The Bears would love for all five to succeed down the stretch. However, it is impossible to give up on next season’s front.
Get Deeper
Justin Fields vs. Bill Belichick: Patriots have the advantage, but how can Bears counter it?
Are the Bears “soft tanking?” By that I mean the players are trying to win and the coaches are calling the game to win … but Poles is purposely putting a bad team on the field and Flus is putting young guys in on offense vs. potentially better vets (their recently signed vet OL are not getting snaps). Or were they just so cap-strapped they couldn’t put together a decent OL/WR group? — Adam N.
Why is the media so reluctant to call this year a tank-season, when it really is? — Warren Z.
The answer to Warren’s question is part of Adam’s question. I resist saying a team is “tanking” because players don’t tank and coaches don’t tank. In fact, it’s a trait that can sometimes frustrate fan bases. As last year, Thomas Graham Jr. and Dazz Newsome weren’t playing, it was as simple as the coaches didn’t deem them ready to play. Coaches are not wired to think about a young player’s development being more important in a lost season than a veteran whom they trust.
Even so, a front office doesn’t like losing, either. Ryan Poles, the general manager, may have a better view of the team’s long-term vision, but I can assure you that I was there during the midst of Poles and his coworkers. PackersThese guys want to win every single game. You might find a new perspective after a loss.
The Bears will note the salary-cap restraints and not having a first-round pick, but they firmly believed in the vets they brought in — Justin Jones, Lucas Patrick, Nicholas Morrow, Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown, Al-Quadin Muhammad, etc. Although these guys were expensive, GMs tend to think they can get the most out of the players that they acquire. That would be their argument against the idea of putting a “bad team on the field” on purpose.
Velus Jones Jr., Bears rookie, muffles a punt return from the Commanders. (Matt Marton / USA Today)
However, the Bears went that route instead of spending on a few players more likely to make an impact.
There’s a lot that Poles had to do with this roster to overhaul it, and he has to figure out what the Bears have in quarterback Justin Fields. Yes, we can have conversations about how difficult that is considering the pieces around him, but I’m also not sure how much better this team would be if they were more aggressive last March.
Poles may not like to call this a rebuilding group, but it is. That’s more accurate than calling this a tank job. The problem is, rebuilding is not easy in the NFL and isn’t supposed to take very long. When the Bears spend big next March, they won’t be in the “tanking” or “rebuilding” conversation. This should be a one year situation.
Are Poles responsible for the mess? Robert Quinn? Hearing that he’s on the trade block was a major disappointment. He knew before the season that this team was never going to compete and Quinn’s value was at an all-time high. Now he’s off to a weak start to the season and I can’t imagine we’d get more than a Day 3 pick for him at this point. This feels like a missed opportunity. — Jon H.
We might be able begin this speculation in the next days if Quinn is moved by the Bears. His value seemingly would have gone down based on his current stat line — only one sack and two QB hits. But this isn’t abnormal in his career, and it’s not far-fetched to think Quinn, in a new setting, could be more impactful than he’s been this season.
Alan Williams, defensive coordinator, was asked about Quinn’s status on Friday. He stated that Quinn should be free from outside noise and media attention. That shouldn’t be an issue for Quinn.
“I think in football, if you do your job, they’ll come to you,” Williams added. “If you do it fast, if you do it hard, if you’re (paying) attention to the details, they’ll come, and they’ll usually come in bunches. I would say for him, and we’ve talked bout this, don’t press. It’ll come to you. He’s a good enough player that they’ll come.”
Quinn may be able to get a few major plays on Monday nights to boost his value. But the contract details could make a trade difficult at any time. He’s still owed more than $8 million this year. There’s no guaranteed money left, but the Bears might have to help with that remaining 2022 salary to sweeten any trade talks.
I will say, Quinn probably wasn’t getting anything better than a third-round pick considering his age (32) and the contract. So, if we’re talking about a move from Round 3 to Round 4 or 5, that’s still notable, but it’s not as steep as it could’ve been. The RamsQuinn and their connection will make this a fascinating team to watch.
On Monday’s CHGO podcast, Corey Wotton stated that this defense needs the DL to allow the linebackers to play. This has not been the case. Where would the Bears team and defense be without Corey Wotton? Larry Ogunjobi? What if one or two of those defeats were wins? — Tim B.
For all the talk about how constrained this front office was with the league’s highest dead cap, why did Poles try to sign Larry Ogunjobi to a $40M contract? Can you please explain why this was done in a rebuilding year? The current state of the offense makes it seem baffling. — Ravi S.
This week, we have two Ogunjobi questions! It’s probably a good time to reflect on the Bears’ pursuit of Ogunjobi now that we’re one-third through the season.
In the Steelers’Overtaken by the BuccaneersOgunjobi was responsible for four tackles, one for a loss and two QB hits. This TFL occurred on second-and goal from the 1-yard line and eventually forced a Bucs field goal. He also had a stop for no gain, and a QB hit on the third down. He played on 64 percent of Pittsburgh’s snaps.
That’s a pretty good day at the office for Ogunjobi, who has seven quarterback hits this season.
Meanwhile, Justin Jones — Ogunjobi’s replacement — has probably been the Bears’ most productive defensive lineman. He has had two sacks, six tackles to the loss, three QB hits, and two passes defensed in this season.
This chartThe closeness of the two men shows that Ogunjobi is the better pass rusher, while Ogunjobi is the less effective.
To answer question No. 1, I’m not sure we can say that Ogunjobi would be the difference between an extra win or two. Maybe he could have been an offensive tackle or wide receiver. Although the Bears are near the bottom of league pressures, he could have helped them from their three-technique spot if they had passed their physical. But the way this team has played, especially on offense, it’s hard to say his presence would be the deciding factor between 2-4 and 4-2.
On to question No. 2 — the Bears viewed Ogunjobi as a foundational piece of what they wanted to build. After the signing, I spoke to Ogunjobi’s former coach at Charlotte. He was a major part of Charlotte’s football program getting off the ground. The Bears saw those off-the-field qualities in him, and someone who could thrive at a critical position in Matt Eberflus’ system. The money was expensive, but the Bears were not looking for an interior lineman. He was going to be an integral player.
Now, considering the minimal free-agent signings that followed, the Bears probably could have still made all those same moves with Ogunjobi, and they still would’ve had a healthy cap situation for next season. I absolutely understand — both in March and now — the argument as to why not dedicate that kind of financial piece of the pie to a defensive lineman instead of an offensive tackle or a wide receiver. Ogunjobi was highly regarded by both of them and they were devastated when he failed the physical.
Get Deeper
Justin Fields vs. Bill Belichick: Patriots have the advantage, but how can Bears counter it?
The NFL is often described as a game that is measured in inches. I think most fans would say Justin Fields’ development this year is the most important part of the team. With this in mind, imagine how the conversation would change if these two things happened differently and the Bears were currently at 4-2. — Timothy L.
I love hypotheses. This is what I was thinking about during the Commanders game. After Fields’ run in the final minute, I wondered, “What’s the narrative if they score and win here?”
The tenor would naturally be more positive in the moment, but from a big-picture standpoint, I’m not sure we could feel much better about Fields and the state of the offense. The loss to the GiantsFields was 11 for 22 passing for 174 yards. Had Velus Jones Jr.If the Bears didn’t muff the punt and actually won, how would it be different from what it did in the first 58 minute of the game?
It’s time to win the war against the Vikings — a comeback that would’ve capped the passing offense’s best half of the season — could have made more of a sizable change in how we talk about the Bears.
The saying, “You are what your record says you are,” tends to be seen in coverage of a team. The Giants are 5-1, even if their efficiency numbers don’t reflect that, but this week has put Brian Daboll in the Coach of the Year conversation.
As you said, Fields’ development is integral to this team. Fields’ 4-2 record may help him feel more confident, while winning is a very important trait for a quarterback. But we’ve also had Bears teams that won games without seeing tangible developments from the quarterback.
It would be more positive. We’d have different stories to tell about how the Bears won. But I’m not sure how much differently we’d view the quarterback situation for the long term. These questions would not go away.
Matthew Judon, Jared Goff (Lion) and the Patriots defense are tough tests for the Bears. (Brian Fluharty / USA Today)
Bears-Patriots fun facts
• The Patriots lead the all-time series 10-4.
• Belichick is 5-1 against the Bears since losing his first game against them in 2000. In that 24-17 victory, Shane Matthews threw 2 touchdown passes and James Allen ran 1 for 1.
• The Bears are 1-8 against New England since Super Bowl XX.
• The last time the Bears went to Foxboro was 2014, when they fell behind 45-7 in a 51-23 loss. Tom BradyFor 354 yards and five touchdowns, he was 30-for 35 passing. Rob Gronkowski caught nine passes for 149 yards and three touchdowns. Lamarr Houston tore an ACL in celebration of a sack. Jimmy GaroppoloAt the end of each game.
• In 2018, the most recent Bears-Patriots meeting, New England won 38-31. Mitch TrubiskyThrew for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kevin White caught Trubisky’s Hail Mary pass as time expired 1 yard short of the goal line.
• The Bears are 32-42 all time on “Monday Night Football” and 15-26 in Monday night road games.
Get Deeper
Justin Fields, Bears quarterback, is Justin Fields holding on to the ball too long? Let’s get into the numbers.
Game Picks: Bears (+7.5), at Patriots, 7 :15 p.m. ESPN
Kevin FishbainPatriots 22, Bears 13.
(1-3-2 against spread, 2-4 straightup)
Well, here’s something going for the Bears this week — my record picking their games. It’s not good! I don’t expect the Patriots to score at will, but I need to see it to believe it with the Bears offense, and they haven’t shown the ability to march into Foxboro and put up a lot of points against Belichick.
Adam Jahns:Patriots 20, Bears 16,
(1-3-2, 4-2)
The Patriots aren’t exactly a good team, but the Bears do find bad ways to lose. I can see the Bears keeping this close — and covering the spread — but the best bet is taking Belichick over another young quarterback.
Dan PompeiPatriots 27, Bears
(3-1-2, 5-1)
Although the Patriots only have one more win than their Bears counterparts, they have won two consecutive games and seem to be in a rhythm. The Bears are currently in a losing streak of three. Belichick versus Fields is a mismatch. Matthew Judon, a linebacker, is against Fields.
Jon Greenberg:Patriots 27, Bears 10.
(1-3-2, 3-3)
The good news: This is the Bears’ last scheduled national TV game. The bad news? This game will be televised nationally.
Chad Graff (Patriots Beat Writer):Patriots 27, Bears 17.
I think this is the last we’re going to hear of a quarterback controversy in New England for a while. Here’s my prediction: Mac JonesHe plays with more motivation and turns Monday night into one the most memorable games of his career. I don’t think the Bears are going to have much success against this Patriots defense and I think Jones is going to be out to show that he’s the best quarterback in New England.
(Top Photo of Darnell MooneyMichael Reaves / Getty Images
