Before our ACC authors Andy Bitter and Manny Navarro answer your questions, we start this week’s mailbag with updated power rankings through Week 7.
The Athletic’s ACC Power Rankings
1. Clemson:With a win against the Tigers, they can almost eliminate the Atlantic Division. SyracuseThis week. They’ve fended off all their challengers so far.
2. Wake Forest:This group can achieve ten wins in a second consecutive season.
3. Syracuse: Here’s your chance, Orange. You’re 13.5-point dogs, but you’ve beaten Clemson before and have played it close in Death Valley.
4. North Carolina:UNC must be viewed as the clear Coastal favorite and not as a group of blue-chippers that have failed to deliver in the past.
5, NC State: That’s a real bummer about Devin Leary. Is the new quarterback able to hold down the defense? Jack ChambersWhat happens when the incumbent takes over?
6. Florida State:Fans of the Noles are now wondering if their 4-0 start is a fluke. However, they were all losses against ranked teams.
7. Pitt:This team is difficult to understand. Vegas must believe so. At 3-3 Louisville, the Panthers are 2.5-point dog this week.
8. Georgia Tech:Another winning game against Virginia this week could mean the Jackets’ first three-game winning streak since 2018.
9. Duke:The Blue Devils have lost two games in a row. However, both losses were by three. This team is competitively managed by Mike Elko.
10. Miami:Perfect for three quarters Virginia Tech. It was nearly lost in the fourth. Not enough to make us feel much better about the ’Canes.
11. Louisville: Malik CunninghamThe Cardinals are back. Is that enough for the Cardinals to rattle off some wins and save Scott Satterfield’s job?
12. Virginia Tech: That’s now three four-game losing streaks in the last five years for the Hokies, something once unheard of in Blacksburg.
13. Boston College: The Eagles have the worst point differential (-54) in the league, something that doesn’t figure to get better with Wake Forest on tap.
14. Virginia:The Cavaliers still remain the only ACC team without a win. Thursday’s game at Georgia Tech might be their best bet at a win until the season finale at Virginia Tech.
Mailbag
Your picks for this stage include: Coach of the Year, offensive and defensive player of the Year, newcomer to the Year, biggest surprise, and greatest disappointment. – Tom W.
Bitter: It’s a tough call on coach of the year between Syracuse’s Dino Babers and Duke’s Mike Elko right now. I’ll give the edge to Elko because the Blue Devils were beyond dreadful last year, one of the worst teams in the country, and are threatening to make a bowl. Babers may be able to take it away if the Orange manage to upset Clemson or finish with nine- or ten wins. Also, don’t count out Brent Key at Georgia Tech if he turns around that mess in-season and gets to a bowl game.
My offensive player-of-the year is an easy one: North Carolina quarterback Drake MayeThe record-breaking season saw 326 passing yards per contest and 24 touchdowns to only three interceptions. Wake Forest’s Sam HartmanPitt is running back, while he is following his heels (16 TD and 2 INT). Israel Abanikanda (830 yards, 12 TD) is the best non-QB option along with Syracuse’s Sean Tucker (644 yards, 6 TD).
It is more difficult to defend. Pitt defensive tackle Calijah Kancey (8.5 TFL), NC State linebacker Isaiah Moore (21 tackles, 7.5 TFL), Syracuse linebacker Mikel JonesFSU defensive end, 24 tackles, 5.5 TFL Jared VerseAll of them (4 sacks, 80.5 TFL) were great. I’m inclined to give it to Clemson defensive end Myles Murphy, though. He’s tied for the ACC lead with five sacks and is third with 8.5 tackles for a loss. This will be a close race.
My surprise was tied to the coach of year vote. Babers was my first thought. Instead, I see the Orange ranked. Duke was the unanimous choice for the worst league team and has four wins. I’d also throw in North Carolina, which is 6-1 and ranked after people were starting to wonder if Mack Brown could ever deliver despite all that talent.
For my biggest disappointment, I’m looking at Miami. The Hurricanes had high expectations as the media’s pick in the Coastal Division and instead are 3-3, with an ugly loss at home to Middle Tennessee. Boston College has underperformed in Jeff Hafley’s third year, Louisville sure seems to be wasting Cunningham’s career, NC State missed its chance and now doesn’t have its quarterback and Virginia Tech and UVa have been bad (though that was expected). Miami was actually setting expectations, and it is failing to meet them.
Navarro: I agree with a lot of Bitter’s choices and sentiments.
Dabo Swinney should be named coach of the Year if Clemson defeats Syracuse on Saturday. Why? He’s pulled a Frank Sinatra and done it his way. He has found success replacing his two coordinators with assistants he’d already been grooming on the staff. He has gotten quarterback DJ UiagaleleiTo raise his play level with the fans who once clamored for him to turn to Cade Klubnik. Swinney, for all of the criticism he received for being anti-transfer portal man, has done just fine in improving the roster the old-fashioned manner.
Three examples of genuine freshmen making an impact: Antonio WilliamsRight tackle leads the team in receiving with 24 catches, 334 yards and 2 TDs. Blake MillerHe was ranked 14th in the ACC’s 34 offensive tackles. Cornerback Toriano pride is rated above average, placing 30th of 53 ACC cornerbacks that play more than 100 minutes. Tip of the Cap, Mr. Swinney.
Drake Maye was on North Carolina’s bench last year as a true freshman, but he’s both the newcomer and offensive player of the year in the league. Maye is already a better player than Sam Howell.
Because nobody is truly separated, it’s a harder choice for defensive player of the year. But I’d add Miami’s Akheem Mesidor (5 sacks, 6 TFLs) to Bitter’s list. Clemson’s Murphy, though, should win it because he’s the best player on the league’s best defense.
My biggest surprises are three-fold: Syracuse being unbeaten, Duke being above .500, and North Carolina being in the driver’s seat for the Coastal. Kudos for their coaches. Miami was the greatest disappointment.
It’s a wide-open race, but Clemson’s Myles Murphy (98) could end up being the man to beat for ACC defensive player of the year. (Winslow townson / USA Today).
So who won’t be going to a bowl game? Virginia Tech, Boston College, Louisville, and Virginia? Duke and Georgia Tech have (shockingly) still a chance. — John R.
Bitter: I don’t like the chances of Virginia, Virginia Tech or Boston College, who are all 2-4, winning four of their last six games to get there. None of these teams have been able to put together such a run.
Louisville is 3-3 and within reach, but the Cardinals’ schedule gets tough. They will be playing Pitt in their next six games, which is No. 13 Wake Forest James MadisonThis is great!), No. 5 Clemson, No. 23 NC State, No. 19 Kentucky. Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite this weekend at home against Pitt, so let’s just say the Cardinals hold serve and win that one and take care of JMU. They’d still have to beat one of the four ranked teams left on their schedule to get there. Maybe that’s NC State, which will be without Leary, but that still seems like an uphill battle.
Duke will need two wins from its five remaining games. There are very winnable matchups at Boston College, at home against Virginia Tech, and a game at Miami this weekend. That’s definitely possible.
I’m less confident in Georgia Tech, which is 3-3 and needs three wins. It takes UVa on Thursday night. That’s there for the taking. A game at Virginia Tech Nov. 5 is also within reach. The other games are at Florida State vs. Miami and North Carolina, as well as Georgia. Although Key may be the ACC coach, the next three wins will be hard.
Miami needs to win three more and has Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech next on the schedule, not to mention an FSU team it’s beaten four of the past five years and a Pitt team it’s beaten four times in a row. But I never assume anything with the ’Canes, who are a hard team as there is to peg from week to week.
For what it’s worth, here’s how ESPN’s FPI rankings project each team’s chances of getting to six wins: Miami 77.8, Duke 75.8, Louisville 61.7, Virginia 18.5, Georgia Tech 17.5, Virginia Tech 4.1 and Boston College 1.9. I’m a little less bullish on the Cardinals’ chances but otherwise think that’s pretty accurate.
Who is the first to return to relevance? Florida State, Miami, or Virginia Tech? Or should we just stick a fork into all of them? – Randolph R.
Navarro: I’m a big believer in blue-chip ratio. With all due respect to the Dave Clawsons and Paul Johnsons of the world who do an unreal job maximizing the talent they’re able to bring in and using creative offensive systems to win 10, 11 games and compete for conference championships, relevance to me means being able to compete for a national championship and getting to the College Football Playoff from time to time. There’s only a handful of teams every year who fall into that category, and when Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech were all in that category they had ridiculously talented teams.
Mike Norvell has a two-year head start on Mario Cristobal and Pry, and so naturally, you’d think he has the better shot to get there first. Norvell is able to keep his best players out through the transfer portal. However, there are often time limits on how much success you can have that way. Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson aren’t in the national title conversation every year because they’re finding 15 new starters every year in the transfer portal. They’re in it because they stack great recruiting classes upon one another and complement them with a few high-end transfers.
Pry is a new head coach and he’s got a much tougher hole to climb out of from a recruiting standpoint just in his backyard. The Hokies’ highest-ranked commitment in Virginia is ranked 22nd in the state. Penn StateNorth Carolina and North Carolina are acquiring all the elite talent within the commonwealth.
Florida State and Miami are facing more competition from Alabama and Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson, as well as the rest of the country. But there’s more talent to go around. Cristobal is, in the end, the more experienced recruiter who has a better track record. So, simply on that, I’m going to say Miami. But I believe Norvell is a good coach and I wouldn’t dismiss him yet.
Is Devin Leary likely to return for his senior season in order to improve his draft stock, after this year was cut short by injury? Did you know of any other instances where someone came back from an injury, even though they were draft-eligible? Is he playing Russian roulette to get another chance at injury? – BD G.
Navarro: It’s hard to imagine Leary’s draft stock is going to improve any after he was unspectacular (61.1 completion percentage, 1,265 yards, 11 TDs, 4 INTs) in the six games he was healthy to play, and now that he’s out for the rest of this season with a torn pectoral muscle. He was already in the Day 3 draft list going into the season. He will only be able to help himself if he returns for the Senior Bowl and other All-Star games, and performs well.
Leary, 23 years old, would do himself a favor and return to school for one more year to try to improve his grades and possibly leave on a higher note. But considering he broke his fibula in 2020 and is now dealing with this, he might just decide it’s best to move on.
Bruce Feldman, former NFL MVP and No. 3 overall pick Matt Ryan is one example of a quarterback who dealt with injury as a junior, could’ve come out early and instead returned for one final year and improved his draft stock. Ryan hurt his foot while playing against Virginia Tech. He was able to play through it. The ACC player of year award was presented to Ryan the following season.
Is there a parallel to what Tony Elliott and his team are doing? Brennan Armstrong? He was posting legit Heisman numbers, and getting decent results. NFLBuzz, then incompetent coaches come in to flush his pro dreams. — Tim C.
Bitter: It’s kind of incredible, a situation made worse by the fact that this wasn’t some defensive-minded guy coming in as the head coach and just not being equipped to bring along a talented quarterback. Elliott was a highly respected offensive mind who’d tutored quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, two high draft picks who have done well for themselves in the NFL.
It’s a rare situation. For starters, programs that have quarterbacks who put up the kind of numbers Armstrong did in 2021 aren’t usually looking for a head coach the following season. Bronco Mendenhall’s resignation was unique in its timing and led to the turning over of an offensive staff that otherwise would have been kept in place.
The closest example of this is Penn State with James Franklin. James Franklin inherited Christian Hackenberg as his successor in 2014. Hackenberg went from 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 2013 under Bill O’Brien to 12 touchdowns and 15 picks in 2014 under Franklin, with a 25-point drop in his quarterback rating and 1.3 fewer yards per attempt.
Armstrong’s situation is more of a dropoff, though. UVa is trying to be more balanced this year, so the let-Armstrong-do-his-thing-on-every-play approach is no more. As a result, he’s seen a precipitous drop in his numbers, down 177.3 yards per game, 2.4 yards per attempt, 46.4 points in quarterback rating, and he’s on pace for just 10 touchdown passes after throwing for 31 last year.
This isn’t all on Armstrong. This is not just Armstrong. His receivers, which were supposed to be a strength on this team have had problems with drops all season. Dontayvion WicksEspecially out of sorts is a former All-ACC First-Teamer. And the Cavaliers’ offensive line is clearly a shell of what it was last year after all the departures.
This is the mission Elliott was hired to lead. And while that’s a process for first-year coaches trying to implement their schemes and get used to their personnel, UVa had such a head start with the quarterback it had in place that you’d figure more progress at this point. The fact that the Cavaliers have the 81st-ranked passing offense nationally with the players it had returning can’t make UVa fans feel too comfortable about the Elliott hire six games in.
Realistically, what are two or three things within Jim Philips’ power that he could do to improve the ACC football product in your opinion? – Steven S.
Navarro:It was a good first step to get rid of divisions. The ACC’s biggest problem has been the mediocre Coastal Division. It made for some cute slogans like Coastal Chaos and entertaining matchups in the late-season division to see who gets to Charlotte and is destroyed by Clemson during the league title game.
But the reality is it’s been a black eye for the league, which signed a bad TV contract the last time around and doesn’t land the same caliber of talent the SEC does, in part because it’s viewed as the B-League. It’s a good first step to change the narrative by getting the best two teams in the league to meet each other every December.
Phillips is able to do more for the real bottom line. With a grant of rights deal tying everyone together through 2036 — that’s the billion-dollar question.
One thing I’d try to do if I was commissioner (short of convincing Notre DameTo join, you must convince the league that nine conference games are played each year. It would increase television value immediately and allow for more rivalry game per year (like Miami-Virginia Tech).
I also think it wouldn’t hurt to push for an annual ACC-Big Ten-type challenge like the league has in basketball and partner with the Big 12 or Pac-12. It could also generate TV revenue.
What is the short-term and long term ceiling for Wake Forest? Dave Clawson has made Wake Forest competitive over the past couple of years, signing a long-term contract extension. Is there a chance that their recruiting classes will see an increase in numbers or will they be hampered by their academic standards? – Matthew K.
Navarro:Wake Forest is one of the best places to be. Stanford was a few years ago — good enough to win 10, 11 or 12 games and go to some New Year’s Six Bowl games. But he never had the talent or wealth to win national championships. David Shaw was a great performer, with six AP top-20 finishes over seven seasons. But the Cardinal are now at 4-8 and 4-2, respectively, 3-9 and 2-4 in the past four years.
It’s up to the administrators at Wake to decide how far they want to carry this thing. The staff Clawson has put together is going to be pursued by others and so it’s going to require paying them to stick around and be a part of what Clawson is building.
As for the recruiting classes, we’ve seen a slight uptick. The 2023 class is ranked 43rd overall, which is an upgrade from where Wake’s classes have been in the past. I’m not too worried Clawson won’t find the right players for what they do.
There are a lot of fourth-, fifth- and sixth-year seniors on the roster, so we may see some slippage in 2023 — especially if Sam Hartman leaves for the NFL (he’s a redshirt junior). But Clawson has it rolling right now, and I’d expect Wake at the very least to remain a bowl team in years to come.
(Top photo of Virginia Tech linebacker Dax Hollifield(4) reaching Miami wide receiver Colbie YoungRyan Hunt / Getty Images
